UK employment fall and unemployment rise to be the turning points?

The unexpected rise in the UK unemployment rate from 5.5% to 5.6% in the three months to May, may be explained by the rise in UK productivity, if sustained in Q2. The increase in unemployment was only 15k as employment fell by 67k but the active labour force fell by less (52k). 

Taken in isolation, that may well just be a blip but it has already been highlighted that the claimant count data had been foreshadowing a loss of momentum in the downward unemployment trend so that shouldnt be dismissed out of hand. 

The question is whether that fall in employment was driven by a fall in final demand, which would be worrying, or by a rise in productivity. The partial data available for the second quarter point to a rise in productivity but the faster rate of about 0.6% qoq is doubtful if it will continue beyond the second quarter. 

"There might be some uncertainty effects related to the May general election that temporarily held back employment and which will have been reversed subsequently", says Societe Generale. 

This implies that the pace of productivity growth may fall back in the second half of the year so the ceiling in employment is doubtful, and thus the floor in unemployment, has yet been reached, especially as only a gradual deceleration is expected in GDP growth.