UK industrial production preview

 

UK industrial production data to be released at 9:30 GMT, today.

Why important?

• Industrial production is vital for economy showing the undercurrent of an economy. Better data indicates improvement in economy and demand as a whole.

Past trends -

• UK's industrial activities have been growing since September 2013 that fueled rate hike bets by Bank of England (BOE).
• In recent times, however the growth has somewhat slowed, mainly due to lackluster global growth and subdued domestic demand that saw a push back in rate hike expectations.
• In December growth fell to 0.5% YoY and declined on a monthly basis by -0.2%.
• Manufacturing production in December grew by 2.4% YoY and 0.1% mom.

Expectations today -

• Industrial production is expected to improve to 1.3% YoY and 0.2% mom.
• Manufacturing production is expected to grow at 2.6% YoY and 0.2% mom.

Impact -

• Worse data - Pound may break below and might test the support level near 1.50, but might wait for NISER GDP estimate data and large volume of New York session to break below the estimate.
• Better data - Might go up to test the resolve of dollar bulls. Major impact might be on other pound based pairs, namely EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY.