UK retail sales to rise again

Sales have been volatile in recent months because of Easter. The retail surveys that provide us with a guide report sales compared to a year earlier so suffer from the variable timing of Easter.

The CBI survey showed an enormous jump in the balance of reported sales from 12 to 51 in May and the BRC survey, using the BRC shop price index to create a real sales series, showed growth of 3% yoy after only 0.5% in April. 

In May last year, sales grew by only 0.2% mom. Interpreting the two surveys to indicate an acceleration in the yoy rate would suggest a mom increase stronger than that. 

"We predict an increase of 0.4% mom after 1.2% in April. As usual, the margin of error is extremely high on this forecast", says Societe Generale.