UK’s Q1 GDP growth estimate likely to have stayed at 0.4pct

The economic data released after the preliminary estimate of UK’s first quarter GDP has given additional detail on the construction and industrial sectors, said Societe Generale in a research report. The industrial production’s monthly path in Q1 was considerably revised; however, the first quarter-on-quarter estimate of 1.9% remained the same. Similarly, the month-on-month construction data was also subject to revision; however, that just marginally altered the quarter-on-quarter estimate to -1.1% from -0.9%, said Societe Generale.

As construction contributes below 6% to the GDP, the small alterations do not indicate any revision to the first estimate of the Q1 GDP growth. Services contribute most to the GDP and there is data that still presents a risk of certain revision from that sector.

“Overall, though, we expect the estimate of Q1 GDP growth to remain at 0.4%”, noted Societe Generale.