U.S. Fed no longer patient, but by no means hasty

One can never be sure of anything, but the probability of the Fed dropping the "patient" language above 95%. 

This will end an era of forward guidance and mark a shift to full data dependency. While nothing is pre-determined beyond this meeting, and Janet Yellen will offer no hints of when the next rate hike may be coming. 

Societe Generale notes...

• We expect that the data will ultimately meet the conditions for a June rate hike. We believe that those conditions include further progress on the labor market, data consistent with above-trend growth, and confidence that inflation will return to two percent over the medium term. 
  
  
• Importantly, the Fed is more concerned about the inflation outlook than about current inflation. To the extent that it views any weakness in core inflation as transitory, it should not constitute an impediment to lifting rates. 
  
  
• We believe that a June liftoff would be appropriate as the labor market reaches full employment, but the low inflation environment - which largely reflects international developments - does allow the Fed to move less aggressively thereafter. 
  
  
• As a result, we anticipate only one more rate hike this year, most likely in Q4.