U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index likely to have risen slightly in December

The U.S. ISM non-manufacturing survey data for the month of December is set to release tomorrow. While the survey has held up better than its manufacturing counterpart, there is likely to be more focus on the non-manufacturing survey tomorrow.

In the last three months, the overall index has averaged only 53.7 and continues to be close to its recent lows. The new orders series, which is one of the leading components of the survey, has risen for the last two months and is back to 57.1, which is a bit above the average for the last six months but still below the trailing 12-month average.

“Further improvement here would be a positive sign and suggest the recent lull in economic growth is behind us. Most of the attention will be on the employment components, however, which are a key input into many nonfarm employment forecasts. The survey’s employment series has risen solidly for the past two months–closely corresponding with the surprisingly good jobs data”, noted Wells Fargo in a research report.

According to Wells Fargo, the ISM non-manufacturing index is likely to have risen to 54.3 from November’s 53.9.