U.S. Job Growth Expected to Slow Amid Hurricanes and Strikes

Overview of U.S. Job Growth in October

U.S. job growth is anticipated to slow significantly in October due to the impact of recent hurricanes and strikes among aerospace factory workers. The Labor Department's employment report, set to be released this Friday, will be the last major economic update before the pivotal presidential election.

Labor Market Conditions

Despite the expected decline, economists suggest that the labor market remains solid. Cory Stahle, an economist at Indeed Hiring Lab, notes, "There are still plenty of opportunities out there," although conditions vary by job type. A Reuters survey predicts nonfarm payrolls will increase by approximately 113,000 jobs, down from 254,000 in September, marking the smallest increase in six months.

Disruptions from Natural Disasters

Hurricanes Helene and Milton have caused significant disruptions, with estimates of job losses ranging from 25,000 to 70,000. The greatest impacts are likely to affect sectors with high hourly employment, such as retail and restaurants. Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander Capital Markets, explains that salaried workers typically receive pay during shutdowns, unlike hourly employees.

Strikes Affecting Payrolls

Additionally, a recent strike involving 41,400 workers, including 33,000 machinists at Boeing, may further depress payroll figures. While Boeing has initiated rolling furloughs, economists remain optimistic about the stability of the overall job market.

Unemployment Rate Outlook

The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.1%, despite potential temporary layoffs affecting the figures. Economists predict that any marginal increase in unemployment will not signal a downturn in the labor market, which continues to exhibit low layoff rates and wage growth.