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Indonesia’s Inflation Trends: Headline Eases, Core Inflation Surges
October Inflation Overview
Indonesia's headline inflation rate eased to 1.71% in October, down from 1.84% in September. This rate aligns closely with analysts' forecast of 1.68% from a recent Reuters poll. It marks the lowest rate since October 2021, signaling some cooling in broader inflation trends.
Rising Core Inflation Reflects Demand Pressures
Despite the overall dip in headline inflation, core inflation—which excludes volatile food and government-regulated prices—jumped to 2.21% in October, up from 2.09% in September. This core inflation rate is the highest recorded since July 2023, defying analysts’ expectations for a stable figure and indicating increased demand pressures.
Bank Indonesia's Policy Outlook
The headline inflation rate remains within Bank Indonesia’s (BI) target range of 1.5% to 3.5%. Although BI lacks a specific target for core inflation, it considers core inflation trends in shaping monetary policy. Following an interest rate cut in September, BI Governor Perry Warjiyo has hinted at the potential for further cuts if inflation remains controlled, with the timing largely influenced by global economic conditions.
Outlook for 2025
BI anticipates maintaining low inflation through 2025. However, the recent rise in core inflation could signal a need for cautious policy adjustments in response to global market dynamics and domestic demand trends.
