U.S. Jobless Claims Hit 3-Year Low, Strengthening Case for Fed Rate Cut

With 191,000 U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29, a decrease of 27,000 from the prior week and the lowest figure since September 2022, This fell far short of 220,000 expectations, indicating ongoing labor market strength notwithstanding seasonal distortions connected to the Thanksgiving holiday.

Reflecting general stability in layoffs, the four-week moving average stayed constant at roughly 223,750. Claims for the week finishing November 22 fell by 4,000 to 1.939 million, thus maintaining the insured unemployment rate at 1.3%. Holiday timing had a strong impact on unadjusted claims, which also had a sharp 20% weekly fall.

The better-than-expected report confirms the story of U.S. labor market resilience at a time when investors are interested on the Fed's December 9–10 meeting. The data supported risk assets—including equities and crypto—by increasing rate-cut odds to almost 90% for a 25-bp movement, therefore adding downward pressure on the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields.