U.S. Jobs Data Revisions and Trump’s BLS Firing Spark Market Turmoil

U.S. markets were rattled Friday as sharp downward revisions to prior jobs data and President Donald Trump’s sudden firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) chief fueled fears over economic data reliability and Federal Reserve policy.

The July employment report showed nonfarm payrolls rising by just 73,000, well below forecasts of 110,000. June’s figure was slashed from 147,000 to 14,000, and May’s was revised from 144,000 to 19,000 — a combined downward revision of 258,000 jobs. Economists warned such significant adjustments suggest the Fed may have misread the labor market and could accelerate rate cuts to stabilize growth.

Trump, alleging the data was “rigged” to damage Republicans, ordered BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer’s dismissal, a move analysts say risks undermining trust in future economic reports. The turmoil coincided with the resignation of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, giving Trump an opportunity to reshape the Federal Open Market Committee amid already strained relations.

Markets swiftly priced in easing: CME data showed the probability of a September rate cut jumping to 81% from 38% the day before. Treasury yields plunged, with the 10-year falling 15 basis points to 4.22%, its steepest drop since April, while the S&P 500 slid 1.6% to its lowest level since early July.

Investors remain concerned about the dual drag of weakening employment and Trump’s tariffs, which could worsen inflation and stall growth. Analysts warn job creation is nearing “stall speed,” raising fears of a potential recession.

The Fed, led by Chair Jerome Powell, faces heightened pressure to navigate policy amid unreliable data, shifting trade policies, and mounting market anxiety.