After sweeping victory by Republican front runner Donald trump, in his home state New York, second runner Ted Cruz now faces a critical question – is there any way, he can secure Republican nomination?
Let’s see –
As of now, Donald Trump has 845 delegates and Ted Cruz have 559. Either of them will have to secure magic number of 1237 delegates to win an outright nomination. So Trump needs 392 delegates and Ted needs 678 delegates.
As of now, 734 delegates are available for grab, which means, Trump will have to win 53.4% of the rest, while Ted will have to secure 92.3% of the rest.
So Ted is almost certain to be out in outright nomination contest.
So, how can he still win the nominations?
TED will have to prevent Trump from securing an outright nominations, which means he will have to win 343 delegates to prevent an outright nomination, which will lead to a contested convention. But to be on the best of side, it’s best if TED wins at least 400 of the remaining delegates or 54.5% of rest of the delegates. Which is still a possible task.
There are 15 primaries still left, among which there are 9 states, where the rule is winner takes all. If Cruz can win these states only, he can still grab 497 delegates, enough to stop Trump and improve his bids at the convention.
Moreover, unlike Trump, who has been riding with popular votes of people and strained his relations with the Republicans in Senate and House of representatives, Cruz has done some serious ground work, which improves his odds at convention and when unallocated delegates and delegates from other runners are allocated or elected.