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US Election Series: calculation says it’s Hilary-Donald final

After March 15th primaries done with, and almost 60% of the US state primaries done with simple calculations as well as market pricing through bets are strongly suggesting that it will be a Hilary-Donald final.

Still counting from March 15th primaries going on,

  • On the democratic front, Hilary Clinton has secured 1561 candidates, whereas Bernie Sanders have about 800. So it is 761 delegates lead in favor of Hilary. To secure nomination a democratic candidate needs 2383 candidates and as of now still 2404 remaining to be grabbed. Even if we exclude Hilary’s 467 super delegates, she is still leading with 294 delegates. It would be fair to say, she is unstoppable from reaching that final nomination line and even if Bernie wins too, she is likely to be most preferred choice of democrats.

 

  • On the three candidates are now left from the original 16. Latest to quit has been Marco Rubio. With counting still remaining for March 15th, Donald Trump is with comfortable lead of 621 candidates, followed by Ted Cruz with 396 and John Kasich with 138. To secure Republican nominations candidate needs to have 1237 delegates and as of now 1134 are remaining, which means looking at the gap Trump needs 616 more and if he can secure them it may not be enough left for Cruz to secure his nominations.

Next in lines are primaries in Arizona and Utah on March 22nd for Republican side and Arizona, Utah and Idaho for the democrats.

  • Market Data
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