US Q1 GDP probably still weak, but less so than previously

A slight upward revision is expected to Q1 GDP growth to -0.2% q/q SAAAR (the consensus view) from -0.7%, when the third print is released (Wednesday, 08:30 ET). This would be on better private consumption, investment and inventories. 

The reaction to disappointing Q1 GDP data has varied among Fed members. While most say it reflected transitory factors, some have been surprised by lacklustre consumer spending continuing into Q2 (latest retail sales data shows consumption may be turning a corner, however). 

On 22 June, Governor Powell said that it is difficult to measure GDP "over short periods", and there might be anomalies. He highlighted the ongoing labour-market improvement instead, emphasising that conditions might be met to raise rates by "September" if the US labour market remains strong.