US civilian jobless rate likely remained on downtrend in July

US unemployment and labor participation data are scheduled to release today. Societe Generale expects, the BLS' (Bureau of Labor Statistics) canvass of 60,000 eligible households will yield similarly upbeat results. Assuming that the relationship between the establishment and household employment measures held fairly steady during the reference period, the latter series probably expanded by 210,000, more than offsetting the surprising 56,000 contraction recorded in June. 
According to SocGe, "The civilian labor force is expected to rebound as well in July, but the 125,000 snapback we envision would reverse little more than one quarter of the 432,000 prior-period dive. Taken together, the aforementioned rebounds would leave the unemployment rate one tick lower at 5.2% (5.225% unrounded) - the lowest level since April 2008."

Broader labor slack gauges likely followed suit last month. 

SocGen states, "Our conventional unemployment rate forecast would be consistent with the BLS' U-6 measure, which includes both marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons, shedding one tick as well to 10.4% - the tightest reading since June 2008. With the civilian population expected to expand by 125,000 in July, the participation rate would remain at the 38-year low of at 62.6%."