U.S. civilian jobless rate likely resumed its downtrend in August

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics canvass of 60,000 households is expected to yield similarly upbeat results. Assuming that the relationship between the establishment and household employment measures held fairly steady during the reference period, the latter series likely expanded by 245,000 in August, more than double the 101,000 rise posted in July. The growth of the civilian labor force probably quickened up as well during the reference period, with an estimated 185,000 additional persons seeking work, following a 69,000 prior-period rise, states Societe Generale. 

Taken together, the aforementioned pickups would leave the unemployment rate one tick lower at 5.2% (5.217% unrounded) - the lowest level since April 2008. Looking ahead, labor-market conditions are expected to tighten further during the fall, paring the unemployment rate to 4.9%. Broader labor slack gauges probably also improved last month. 

"The conventional unemployment rate forecast would be consistent with the BLS' U-6 measure, which includes both marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons, shedding another tick to 10.3% - the tightest reading since June 2008. With the civilian population expected to expand by 215,000 in August, the participation rate would remain at the 38-year low of 62.6% for a third straight month", says Societe Generale.