US durable goods order likely grew in January

US durable goods order is expected to have grown 5.3% in January on commercial jetliner-led snapback in transportation-equipment requisitions. This will more than counter the 5% decline in December. Reflecting a likely $11.7-billion rise in commercial aircraft bookings, transport orders are expected to have increased by 13.6% in the reference period, accounting for around four-fifths of the increase in the headline figure in January.

Other "hard" goods bookings are also likely to have grown in January. Indeed, net of the forecasted strength in transport requisitions, durable goods orders likely grew 1.5%, erasing all but a part of the drop recorded in the months of November and December.

Nondefense capital goods surrounding excluding aircraft is expected to add to the positive tone of the Census Bureau's advance report. Core capex bookings likely grew 2.7%, recouping nearly two thirds of the 4.3% slide registered in December. Nondefense capital goods shipments without jetliner deliveries are likely to have grown 1.1% in January, building on the moderate growth of 0.2% recorded in the prior month.

"Our forecast would place the important input into the Bureau of Economic Analysis' equipment spending estimates 3.5% annualized above the October-December average, following a 5.6% autumn-quarter decline", says Societe Generale.