US employment situation likely to be positive

US unemployment and labor participation data are scheduled to release today. The remaining portions of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment situation report are expected to be positive as well. Reflecting well-worn calendar quirks associated with the timing of the establishment survey, average hourly earnings likely climbed by 0.2% in July, after no change in the preceding month, says Societe Generale. The District of Columbia and Maryland raised their respective minimum wages on July 1, but the hikes are expected to have no impact on last month's aggregate result. 

Societe Generale estimates, the echo of a smaller uptick during the corresponding period of 2014 would push the year-to-year growth of the closely followed nominal compensation measure two ticks higher to 2.2% - the upper end of the prevailing range over the latest 12 months.

Owing to an extended five-week interval between survey periods, the mean work span of all private employees probably expanded by six minutes to 34.6 hours - the longest interval since February. Although changes in the average workweek usually receive little attention from market participants, the extension projected above would be the functional equivalent of adding almost 350K workers from a labor-input perspective.

According to SocGen, combined with an anticipated 235K increase in private payrolls, their workweek forecast would place total hours worked 0.5% above their prior-month level and a healthy 2.8% annualized above the April-June average.