U.S. likely to see moderate GDP growth ahead

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index in United States increased by 0.4% month on month in November. At a disaggregate level, building permits increased by 0.3PP, stock prices, interest rate spreads and credit conditions each increased by 0.1PP. These were the main driving factors of the index for November.   

In contrast, initial jobless claims and ISM new orders inclined the growth rate of the index. Initial jobless claims reduced by 0.1pp and ISM new orders reduced by 0.1pp. 

"The two-month rebound in the LEI provides little new signal on the direction of the US economy, other than confirming our outlook for continued moderate GDP growth", states Barclays in a research note.