U.S. nonfarm payrolls likely to have rebounded in May, jobless rate to have stabilized at 3.9 pct

U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for the month of May is set to be released tomorrow. According to a TD Economics research report, nonfarm payrolls are expected to have rebounded by 200k in May. The softer than expected sub-200 prints over March and April partially reflected weather related impacts, implying some giveback.

But, limiting the recovery is the last stage of this growth which has added to the stable fall in the average rate of payrolls gains. Employment surveys also indicate towards more moderate job gains in the coming months. Therefore, there appears to be limited scope for substantial upside above 200k.

“We expect the unemployment rate to stabilize at 3.9 percent assuming a stable participation rate, which inched lower in the prior month. We expect average hourly earnings to rise 0.2 percent m/m”, stated TD Economics.

At 21:00 GMT the FxWirePro's Hourly Strength Index of US Dollar was highly bearish at -123.924. For more details on FxWirePro's Currency Strength Index, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex

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