US retail sales momentum still limited

US retail sales have shown only modest momentum in recent months; weak petrol prices remain a significant negative for this nominal sales measure. Highlighting the impact of petrol prices, headline retail sales are up 2.2% over the year to August. 

In contrast, core retail sales (which exclude autos & gas) are up 4.4%yr. This divergence is likely to persist for some time yet. Partial data for the month of September is soft, suggesting we are likely to see another subdued outcome. 

A meek 0.1% gain seems most probable, albeit with a significant chance of upward revisions to prior months. Autos & gas are likely to be a marginal negative in the month; and, as a result, the core series is expected to rise 0.2%.