US retail sales to post a modest number in November

Retail sales in the United States are likely to post a modest +0.1% m/m number in November. Vehicle sales slipped modestly according to Ward's (-0.4% m/m), and the retail gasoline price fell by 5.4% m/m on average. These two factors alone should pose a modest drag for retail sales. 

Positives include strong consumer confidence (the University of Michigan number improved in November, the Conference Board number slipped, both were still in solid expansion territory) and a good increase in the savings rate in October (5.6% vs. 5.3% in September) that should leave consumers with more money to spend and push core sales up to +0.2% m/m. 

The Black Friday sales numbers always pose somewhat of a challenge with respect to forecasting November retail sales numbers as they should have some meaning with respect to November retail sales, and yet, don't tend to match up well with the Census Bureau's retail sales data. For what it's worth, given that big red flag, the numbers were, well mixed, with some sources pointing to a year-on-year sales contraction, others pointing to an uptick. Cyber Monday fell during November this year (it doesn't always) and so might also distort the print.