US shale oil production declines sharply

The IEA sees the oil market as being oversupplied well into next year, additional oil from Iran possibly playing its part in this once sanctions are lifted. It is our opinion that the oversupply could be reduced more quickly, as non-OPEC supply will probably decrease more steeply than previously anticipated. Shale oil production in the US for example is now falling sharply. 

The Energy Information Administration expects production in November to decline by 93,000 to 5.12 million barrels per day, which would constitute the most pronounced monthly fall since the data series began in 2007. From its peak in May, shale oil production would thus have decreased by a good 400,000 barrels per day within the space of just six months. 

"Oil production is under pressure not only in the US, however. According to Norwegian oil consultant firm Rystad Energy, global offshore oil production in ageing fields will drop by 10% or 1.5 million barrels per day next year, which would be the sharpest fall in 30 years. This is due to a lack of investment to maintain production", says Commerzbank.