US unemployment rate to sink in June

The US unemployment rate data for June is due on today.

Societe Generale estimates, the unemployment rate likely to decline from 5.5% to 5.4%, which would reverse the unexpected uptick in May and put it back at the cyclical low first registered in April. 

According to the bank, the labour market is nearing full employment which should mark an inflection point on wage growth. The ECI survey is already showing evidence of a build-up of wage pressures, but the monthly data on average hourly earnings tends to lag.
 
"Despite our bullish outlook for wage growth, we expect the June data to be subdued, with AHE rising by just 0.1% m/m. Our forecast reflects the early survey week (which ended on the 13th of the month) and some payback effects for the 0.3% m/m increase reported for May. If our forecast is correct, the yoy growth rate will decline from 2.3% to 2.2%", estimates Societe Generale.