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The USD/HKD currency spot is expected to hover around 7.85 in the run-up to the G-20 Osaka Summit, with rising upside risks to USD/HKD forwards. If risk sentiment improves, USD/HKD will slide in response as HKMA aggregate balance has shrunk markedly, according to the latest research report from Scotiabank.
The yuan’s weakness has weighed on the HKD despite a steady USD/HKD yield spread. Mainland Chinese investors have turned net buyers of Hong Kong shares again amid escalating US-China trade tensions.
The PBoC has stepped up efforts to stabilize market expectations of the yuan exchange rate, keeping USD/CNY fixing below 6.90.
However, the yuan would face increasing depreciation pressure should China fail to deescalate trade tensions with the US at the G-20 Osaka Summit set for 28-29 June, the report added.
