USDCHF Retreats as Cooling U.S. CPI Fuels Rate Cut Buzz

USDCHF pared some of its gains on easing US inflation data. Currently trading at 0.79447, it reached a high of 0.79870. 

Despite a government shutdown, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2025, published on October 24, revealed inflation cooling with a 0.3% monthly headline. While core CPI fell to 0.2% monthly and 3.0% yearly from 3.1%, propelled by rising (vs. 0.4% projected) and 3.0% annually (vs. 3.1% forecast). A 4.1% gasoline rise and a 0.4% shelter increase offset by drops in motor vehicle insurance, used automobiles, and communication services. Delayed from October 15, the report—enabled by recalled BLS staff—reinforces expectations for a rate cut next week by pointing toward moderating inflation nearing the Fed’s 2% target, as companies balance pre-tariff inventories while absorbing Trump's tariff effects. Data present a positive picture of a resilient U.S. economy negotiating shutdown and trade conflicts with subdued confidence despite yearly upticks in food (3.1%) and energy (2.8%).

Technical Analysis Points to Further Bearishness

The pair is trading below 55-EMA,  the 200 EMA, and above 365 EMA on the 4-hour chart, indicating a bearish trend. The immediate resistance is at  0.800; any break above targets  0.8020/0.8070/0.8090/0.8135/0.8170/0.8215/0.8250.

Support Levels and Potential Declines

On the downside, near-term support is around 0.7900; any violation below will drag the pair to 0.7860/0.7800.

Indicators (4-hour chart)

CCI (50) - Bearish

Directional Movement Index -  Neutral

Trading Strategy Recommendation

It is good to sell on rallies around  0.7978-80 with SL around 0.8020 for a TP of 0.7875.