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Although domestic economic data is moving in the right direction, the increased uncertainty on global growth and inflation over the past month is likely to keep the Fed off the trigger at the September FOMC meeting.
"We now expect the first Fed funds rate hike to be delivered in December this year but stick to our view that the hiking cycle will be significantly faster than what is currently priced. We look for an average of 100bp in hikes per year", notes Dankse Bank.
US yield forecast has been updated with the new fed funds rate path and now see a slower pace of increase in yields and less flattening of the curve in the coming 3-6 months. The projected rates remain above forward rates across the curve.
"Our EUR/USD forecast is revised upwards: we now stress that the EUR/USD low is probably behind us. Some EUR/USD downside is still in store, but we now see the pair trade in the 1.08-1.12 interval on a 3-6M horizon moving higher further out. Specifically, we see EUR/USD at 1.13 in 1M, 1.10 in 3-6M, and 1.15 in 12M",says Dankse Bank.
