University of Michigan consumer sentiment nearly unchanged in late July

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was nearly unchanged in the July final estimate from the preliminary mid-month print. The index ticked down two-tenths, to 93.1, bringing the July final estimate three points below the June's reading of 96.1. Current conditions rose to 107.2, from 106.0 in the preliminary estimate (June: 108.9), and consumer expectations slipped a bit, to 84.1 from 82.5 (June: 87.8). Year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged at 2.8%, and longer-term expectations rose one-tenth, to 2.8%.

"The final July data show a little slippage in the near-term economic outlook from June 115, previous -125, but the other survey components were broadly stable. Importantly, median expected household income growth over the next two years was unchanged at 1.8% from the preliminary release and up one-tenth from June", notes Barclays.

This indicator of income expectations suggests that consumers' assessment of labor markets remains stable, in contrast to the Conference Board survey data released earlier this week that showed a sharp drop-off in labor market expectations. Indeed, the Michigan survey commentary suggests "no indication of a break in the prevailing positive trend." Negative news headline about Greece, China, and the TPP trade negotiations were cited by survey respondents, but did little to drag down the overall index reading. On balance, the final July data from the Michigan survey suggest that consumer sentiment remains broadly stable, ahead to next month's survey readings and the July retail sales report for confirmation of a healthy and stable US consumer, says Barclays.