Deutsche Bank has issued a warning that the outlook for the US economy remains fragile and the possibility of a recession looming ahead remains high. Recently another investment bank, J.P. Morgan has said that there are one in three chances that the US economy would face a recession next year. But it is not just the private organizations flashing red signs, it is very own New York Federal Reserve that has been issuing warnings too.

 Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s recession probability indicator, that predicts the probability of a recession 12 months ahead, is currently at 8.4 percent. It may seem like a small number but it is the highest level for the index since the great recession of 2008/09. During the Great Recession, the index peaked just above 40 percent.

With drum beats of recession looming loud, we can wonder whether it would be a decisive factor for the Fed to hold rates or not.