Yen Carry Trade Blowup: Japan's Yield Spike Ignites Global Risk-Off, Crushes Crypto by $150B

Driven by growing expectations on a Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike and rising worries about fiscal profligacy under fresh Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield soared to 1.84%—its highest level since 2008—on November 30, 2025, which sent the bond market into chaos. Rising to 3.39% by December 1, the 30-year yield followed suit and recorded the biggest monthly increase in super-long bonds in years. While whispers of a huge 17 trillion yen ($109 billion) stimulus package meant to combat inflation but aggravating Japan's growing 230% GDP debt load—piled pressure on yields, implying the possible termination of decades of ultra-loose monetary policy, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's hawkish statements heightened anticipation for a December policy tightening.

The yield frenzy set off a ferocious unwind of the yen carry trade, a $20 trillion global liquidity engine that has long sustained risk assets by letting low-yen borrowing finance high-yield bets on everything from stocks to crypto. Investors raced to cover holdings as the yen soared considerably—up over 2% versus the dollar in a single session—thus starting a cascading of compelled selling everywhere. Equities reeled; the Nikkei fell 3.5% on its worst day since August; low-volume crypto markets exacerbated the suffering by draining liquidity and transforming little dips into complete disasters.

The risk-off tsunami was hardest on cryptocurrencies; Bitcoin crashed under $87,000 for the first time in weeks, thereby destroying $150 billion in total market worth overnight. Dominated by BTC longs caught in the crossfire—Ethereum, Solana, and XRP shed 3-6% in sympathy—over $640 million in leveraged positions vanished across 217,000 traders. This deleveraging frenzy highlights crypto's sensitivity to macroeconomic shocks; with traders now pricing a 76% likelihood of BOJ action on December 18-19, the scene is set for sustained volatility as the age of "free yen money" nears its end.