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The Japanese yen remained the center of attention in currency markets on Monday after last week’s sharp decline fueled speculation that Tokyo could intervene to support the currency. Investors were also reassessing the global interest-rate outlook following a series of central bank hikes.
The yen strengthened slightly to 156.64 against the U.S. dollar after falling about 2% last week. Japanese markets were closed for a three-day holiday, reducing liquidity and keeping traders alert for possible action by authorities.
The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate on Friday to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years. However, the widely anticipated increase failed to lift the yen because two policymakers dissented and the BOJ stopped short of providing strongly hawkish guidance.
The currency subsequently weakened before the Nikkei reported that Japanese authorities had conducted rate checks, a move in which officials request currency quotes from banks to assess market conditions. Traders often view such checks as a potential precursor to foreign-exchange intervention.
HSBC chief Asia economist Fred Neumann said the BOJ faces a difficult communication challenge, particularly after the Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish signal with its unanimous rate increase. The Fed and European Central Bank have also raised rates this month amid persistent inflation pressures linked to the nearly seven-month Middle East war.
Meanwhile, the euro was nearly unchanged at $1.1482 following German state elections in which the Alternative for Germany took first place in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, according to voting projections.
The U.S. dollar index held around 100.23 after gaining more than 1% last week. Markets are pricing in a 55% probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike in October, compared with 42.5% a week earlier, according to CME FedWatch.
Elsewhere, sterling traded around $1.339, while the Australian dollar stood at $0.7129 and the New Zealand dollar at $0.5721.
