Oil price drop threatening ECB’s outlook for higher inflation, raising likelihood of a more dovish ECB

Aug 25, 2015 07:14 am UTC| Insights & Views Central Banks

The ECB is faced with: i) a substantially stronger euro than expected, ii) inflation expectations are much below mandate-consistent levels, iii) oil prices are 31% lower than ECB expected in July, iv) GDP growth is looking...

Fed in catch 22 situation

Aug 25, 2015 07:08 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The USD was the main victim of the development of market uncertanity appeared in Chinese economy. It is a matter to discuss whether the developments in China really will affect the US economy to the extent the market is...

Fed’s first rate hike in March 2016, as financial volatility amid uncertainty in EM pushes out rate hike call

Aug 24, 2015 16:50 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

US financial market conditions have deteriorated in recent weeks and the pace of deterioration has accelerated in recent days. Most emerging market currencies have depreciated against the dollar, equity markets in both...

Weak Chinese data adds pressure on PBoC, policy easing moves look highly likely this week

Aug 24, 2015 10:18 am UTC| Insights & Views Central Banks

Fears that Chinese growth is weakening, dragging the global economy with it, are hammering commodities and world stock markets. Global stock markets extended broad based sell-off, with Chinese equities rout exacerbating...

Holes in the case for a September Fed hike

Aug 21, 2015 17:12 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The constellation of adverse news from China continues to provide ample fuel for the risk-off theme in global markets. Augusts Chinese manufacturing PMI fell to its weakest reading since 2009. Meanwhile, the renewed...

Fed outlook: further delay is likely

Aug 21, 2015 16:53 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The probability of a September hike in the fed funds rate has slipped below 50%. With the global growth outlook worsening and the dollar rising, a September hike could exacerbate declining risk appetite. Furthermore,...

Uncertainty set to keep Fed's finger off the trigger in September

Aug 21, 2015 15:28 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Although domestic economic data is moving in the right direction, the increased uncertainty on global growth and inflation over the past month is likely to keep the Fed off the trigger at the September FOMC meeting. We...