US shutdown and debt ceiling issues could derail the Fed

Sep 27, 2015 22:17 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The current US budget expires on 30 September and three possible scenarios loom. In the best case, a new budget is agreed running until 30 September 2015. More likely, however, is that a continuing resolution will be...

Euro area data this week to highlight the problem faced by the ECB

Sep 27, 2015 20:43 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Euro area data this week are likely to highlight the problem faced by the ECB. The economic activity is not high enough to generate sufficient inflation pressure for it to achieve its price stability objective. Consensus...

Yellen sets the record straight

Sep 26, 2015 07:37 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The Fed took a pass on raising rates last week, citing concern that recent global and financial developments would restrain activity and put further downward pressure on inflation. At the same time, its updated projections...

The Fed's outlook for growth through the rest of the year is pessimistic, dollar drag likely

Sep 25, 2015 15:25 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The latest Fed projection for 2015 4Q YoY GDP growth was a surprisingly low 2.1%. Given what we know about growth in the first and second quarter of this year, we can back out the implied average growth rate for the second...

Hungarian Central Bank lowers overnight rate corridor

Sep 25, 2015 12:46 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The Hungarian Central Bank (MNB) held its newly created three-month benchmark yesterday unchanged at 1.35% but it lowered its overnight rate corridor by 25bps. As a result EUR-HUF rose sharply, past 315.00. MNBs statement...

Key extracts from FED chair Yellen’s speech

Sep 25, 2015 11:07 am UTC| Insights & Views Central Banks

US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen last night gave speech on inflation dynamics and monetary policy at university of Massachusetts, Amherst. Due to not feeling well over dehydration, madam chair hasnt been able to...

Fiscal headwinds to weigh on Cable over the coming year

Sep 25, 2015 11:06 am UTC| Insights & Views Central Banks

Risks to Britains financial stability have risen over the past three months, driven by developments in China and other emerging markets. The combination of low inflation, the consequent rise in real interest rates and GBP...