Brazil's inflation has peaked; but meaningful moderation will have to wait until next year

Oct 19, 2015 23:18 pm UTC| Commentary Economy

Releases through September suggest that inflation acceleration is over. The full month inflation number eased to 9.49% yoy in September from 9.56% in July and 9.53% in August. In fact, the monthly rate of change in prices...

Brazil's current account set for sharp improvement in H2 15

Oct 19, 2015 22:17 pm UTC| Commentary Economy

The deeper contraction in dollar import numbers (-23% yoy until September), compared with exports (-16.8% yoy), have helped the trade balance improve to USD10.2bn from a deficit of -USD0.7bn YTD. It is estimated that the...

UK public finances improvement to stall temporarily in September

Oct 19, 2015 20:54 pm UTC| Commentary Economy

The monthly evolution of the budget deficit is highly erratic. In the first three months of the fiscal year, the PSNBex measure fell by a total of 6bn compared to a year earlier but then in the following two months was...

Chinese economy continues to weigh on oil prices

Oct 19, 2015 16:01 pm UTC| Commentary Economy

Oil prices are beginning the new week of trading down in the wake of predominantly weak Chinese economic data . Brent has fallen to a good $50 per barrel and WTI has slipped below the $47 per barrel mark. New data relating...

Continued deterioration in Brazil's macro economy and financial conditions

Oct 19, 2015 12:19 pm UTC| Commentary Economy

Both the macro economy and financial conditions of Brazil have further deteriorated since the September Copom meeting. On the growth front, August retail sales and labour market developments were worse than expected...

China's deflationary risks hints further monetary easing

Oct 19, 2015 12:15 pm UTC| Commentary Economy

Chinas CPI inflation came in lower than expected at 1.6% y/y for September, down from 2.0% in August, driven mainly by food prices. Core inflation moderated by 10bp to 1.6% y/y. PPI deflation remained deeply negative at...

China's domestic sectors to show resilience

Oct 18, 2015 22:28 pm UTC| Commentary Economy

The flash PMI reports for October will offer a first hint of just how much a toll the slowdown in emerging economies, and not least China, it taking on the real global economy. It is notable, moreover, that in some...