Can we predict political uprisings?

Jun 17, 2017 15:17 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics Economy

Forecasting political unrest is a challenging task, especially in this era of post-truth and opinion polls. Several studies by economists such as Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler in 1998 and 2002 describe how economic...

FX Hedging Strategy Series

FxWirePro: The key driving forces of BRICS currencies and hedging vehicles (episode 2)

Jun 16, 2017 12:42 pm UTC| Central Banks Insights & Views

INR: The INR is an ideal high-yield currency. A modest current account deficit and basic balance surplus, low realized vol and favorable carry-to-vol characteristics should continue to entice carry trade flows. The...

FxWirePro: The key driving forces of BRICS currencies and hedging vehicles (episode 1)

Jun 16, 2017 12:31 pm UTC| Central Banks Insights & Views

BRL: Bearish: USDBRL back to 3.40 on a negative Electoral Court (TSE) ruling on the 2014 presidential campaign financing case, which may compromise the Social Security reform. Another round of wrong-doing allegations to...

FxWirePro: SNB’s status quo keeps Swiss franc forecasts modestly bullish – Strangle writing still seems attractive carry

Jun 16, 2017 12:16 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views Central Banks

In the yesterdays SNB LIBOR rate announcement, the central bank has maintained status quo, leaving interest rates unchanged at -0.75% followed by monetary policy assessment and press conference. In the press conference,...

FxWirePro: Sterling bumps along the bottom after data season, add optionality trades to keep price turbulence on the check

Jun 16, 2017 12:07 pm UTC| Economy Insights & Views Central Banks

The UK economy has weathered the 12 months since the vote to leave the EU better than feared, though the 1Q gain in GDP was, at 0.1% qoq, the slowest in the EU and the uncertainty emanating from the 8 June election result...

RBNZ expected to remain on hold at 1.75 pct, likely to reaffirm neutral bias

Jun 16, 2017 12:06 pm UTC| Insights & Views Central Banks

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand convenes to decide monetary policy on June 22 and we expect the central bank to stay pat at 1.75 pct. The statement is likely to reaffirm a neutral bias. At an interview following the May...

FxWirePro: Hedging framework for bullion prices - Capitalize bearish shift in 1w delta risk reversals to bid shorts in OTM call in 3-way straddles

Jun 16, 2017 10:10 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

The full unwind of the post-election Trump trade, which has led to a weaker US dollar and lower US Treasury yields, has supported golds relatively strong performance this year. To reflect a more benign inflation outlook...