Briferendum Series

EU referendum – how the polls got it wrong again

Jun 26, 2016 19:03 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Estimating the likely outcome of the referendum on the UKs membership of the EU was always going to be a challenge for the opinion polls. In a general election they have years of experience as to what does and does not...

Briferendum Series

African exporters face choppy waters in the wake of Brexit

Jun 26, 2016 19:00 pm UTC| Insights & Views Economy

One would certainly be forgiven if, like us, you found yourself doing a double take at the news that Britains public voted in favour of leaving the EU. This is because shortly before the Brexit polls closed, opinion polls...

Small firms can provide jobs, but big firms are the key to economic growth in Africa

Jun 26, 2016 18:53 pm UTC| Insights & Views Business Economy

Almost all developing countries have policies to promote small and medium-sized firms. The reasons for this choice are clear. Small firms appear to create lots of job with relatively little capital and jobs are desperately...

Briferendum Series

Can the EU force the pace of Brexit?

Jun 26, 2016 18:49 pm UTC| Insights & Views

The tussle for power in the aftermath of the UKs Brexit vote has begun. Now that Britons have voted, the government must decide about negotiating the countrys exit from the European Union. While both the UK prime minister...

ECB voices for more liquidity after GBP hit three decade’s lows on Brexit

Jun 24, 2016 12:51 pm UTC| Central Banks Insights & Views Commentary

Despite all statistical models which we or others had compiled, despite all volatility analyses or opinion polls, we hadnt really been able to imagine that the majority of the British would really vote in favour of leaving...

FX Hedging Strategy Series

FxWirePro: Deploy USD/CAD ‘CCS’ option strategy as CAD to prosper in Q3, substantiated by signals from macros and OTC

Jun 24, 2016 12:43 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

Macro and OTC outlook: We look ahead for the BoC to begin tightening monetary policy H2 2016, contributing to a pullback that takes USD/CAD to 1.33 plus at year end. We stress that the lack of a recovery in crude oil...

FxWirePro: CAD to prosper against USD in Q3 of 2016 on account of macros

Jun 24, 2016 12:28 pm UTC| Insights & Views

We have not incorporated fiscal stimulus into our forecasts as we have not had the Budget yet but this should be an upside risk to our 2.2% growth forecast. We look ahead for the BoC to begin tightening monetary policy...