Market Roundup
•German Feb Factory Orders (MoM) 0.2%,0.6% forecast,-11.3% previous
•UK Mar Halifax House Price Index (MoM) -1.0%,0.3% forecast,0.4% previous
•UK Mar Halifax House Price Index (YoY)0.3%, 1.5% forecast,1.7% previous
•German Feb Import Price Index (YoY) -4.9%,-4.6% forecast,-5.9% previous
•German Feb Import Price Index (MoM) -0.2%, -0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
•EU Feb Retail Sales (MoM) )-0.5%,-0.3% forecast,0.1% previous
•EU Feb Retail Sales (YoY) -0.7% ,-1.3% forecast,-1.0% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•12:30 Canada mar Part Time Employment Change -29.9K previous
•12:30 Canada Mar Full Employment Change 70.6K previous
•12:30 US Mar Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.1% previous
•12:30 US Mar Nonfarm Payrolls 212K forecast,275K previous
•12:30 US Mar Private Nonfarm Payrolls 160K forecast, 223K previous
•12:30 US Mar Manufacturing Payrolls 5K forecast,-4K previous
•12:30 Canada Mar Avg hourly wages Permanent employee 4.9% previous
•12:30 US Mar Government Payrolls 52.0K previous
•12:30 Canada Mar Unemployment Rate 5.9% forecast,5.8% previous
•12:30 Canada Mar Participation Rate 65.3% previous
•12:30 US Mar Average Weekly Hours 34.3 forecast,34.3 previous
•12:30 US Mar Unemployment Rate 3.9% forecast,3.9% previous
•12:30 US MarAverage Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) 4.1% forecast,4.3%previous
•12:30 Canada Mar Employment Change 25.9K forecast,40.7K previous
•12:30 Canada Mar Participation Rate 62.5% previous
•14:00 Canada Mar Ivey PMI 54.2 forecast,53.9 previous
•14:00 Canada Mar Ivey PMI n.s.a 56.3 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•16:15 US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro was little changed against dollar on Friday as investors awaited U.S. non-farm payrolls data.Non-farm payrolls is expected to show U.S. jobs growth slowed moderately in March to 200,000 new jobs, while wage gains remained elevated. The data will be important as it comes at a time when investors getting a bit jittery about whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates in June.U.S. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said if inflation continued to stall, an interest rate reduction may not be required by year-end.However, trader bets were still largely pointing towards the first interest rate cut in June by the European Central Bank and the Fed.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0797(9EMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0821(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0760 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0717 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound eased on Friday as resurgence in demand for the dollar as a safe haven, spurred by heightened geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. Additionally, market sentiment remained cautious ahead of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. .S. job growth likely slowed moderately in March, while wage gains remained elevated, suggesting the economy ended the first quarter on solid ground and potentially delaying anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday is also expected to show the unemployment rate remaining below 4% for 26 straight months, the longest such stretch since the late 1960s. The economy is outperforming its global peers, despite 525 basis points worth of rate hikes from the U.S. central bank since March 2022 to quell inflation. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2674(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2705(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2640(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2626(5EMA).
USD/CHF: The dollar edged higher against the Swiss franc on Friday but gains were limited as investors were cautious ahead of a key U.S. jobs report later in the day, while tensions in the Middle East kept investors on edge. Investors are wary of developments in the Middle East after U.S. President Joe Biden threatened on Thursday to condition support for Israel's offensive in Gaza on it taking concrete steps to protect aid workers and civilians. The dollar has had a turbulent week, falling from a five-month high to a two-week low after an unexpected slowdown in U.S. services growth supported expectations of the Federal Reserve bringing interest rates down. It then rebounded after comments on Thursday from Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari, who is not a voter on this year's policy-setting committee, that rate cuts might not be required this year if inflation continues to stall. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9073(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9100(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9044 (5EMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9012(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher on Friday but gains were limited on increased threat of currency intervention by Tokyo. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki on Friday reiterated the government's resolve to take appropriate action against sharp yen falls.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank could "respond with monetary policy" if weakness in the yen affected the nation's economy in ways that are hard to ignore, the Asahi newspaper reported on Friday.Ueda also said inflation would likely accelerate from summer toward autumn as bumper pay hikes push up prices, his strongest hint yet that another interest rate hike was possible in coming months.The yen strengthened to a two-week high of 150.81 against the dollar before paring gains to trade at 151.345.Strong resistance can be seen at 151.71(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.86(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.62 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 150.46(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks fell to a more than two-week low on Friday, tracking a global skittishness in sentiment following hawkish comments from some U.S. Federal Reserve officials and a spike in tensions in the Middle East.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.94 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 1.39 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 1.44 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices extended gains on Friday and were on course for a second weekly gain, supported by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, concerns over tightening supply and expectations about demand growth as economies improve.
Brent crude was up 36 cents, or 0.4%, to $91.01 a barrel by 1031 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $86.79 a barrel, up 20 cents, or 0.2%.
