Emerging Market Crisis Series

Emerging Market Crisis Series

Mexico’s industrial sector likely to slow in Q1 2016

Feb 12, 2016 06:45 am UTC| Commentary

December Industrial production in Mexico dropped 0.1% m/m in seasonally adjusted terms, mainly because of strong contraction in mining, along with the third continuous drop in construction. IPs print was partially...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

Commodity prices and macroeconomic factors to weigh on under-stressed Latino FX space, likely to depreciate further

Feb 11, 2016 13:23 pm UTC| Insights & Views

MXN should decouple from the rest of the region from Q1 assuming growth is strong enough to allow Banxico to tighten credibly alongside the Fed. ARS will almost certainly be devalued under the incoming Macri...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

Moody's: Rouble depreciation will pressure Russian banks' capital and loan quality

Feb 11, 2016 07:43 am UTC| Research & Analysis

The rouble depreciation, which accelerated in January 2016, will exacerbate the challenges Russian banks are already shouldering from the economic recession, says Moodys Investors Service in a report published today. We...

Currency War Series

Emerging Market Crisis Series

Upside risks for additional tightening from BCB

Feb 10, 2016 15:57 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Brazil inflation is highly unlikely to converge on BCB target in 2017 unless we see sharp BRL appreciation, which appears highly unlikely. January inflation data came in at 10.71% y/y as against Decembers 10.67% y/y, above...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

Sustained Peso appreciation unlikely in near term

Feb 10, 2016 12:22 pm UTC| Commentary

Mexicos January CPI came in at 2.61% y/y, higher than markets expectation of 2.52%. However, the peso failed to make the most out of this data as the economy continues to remain under disinflation and the markets dont...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

India’s GDP grew 7.6% in 2015: is it for real?

Feb 10, 2016 09:58 am UTC| Commentary

According to latest figure released this week, Indias economy officially took over China, in terms of growth rate. Indias economy is now the fastest growing in the world. In three months to December, GDP grew by 7.5%,...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

Brazil’s inflation unlikely to reach central bank’s target range in 2017

Feb 10, 2016 09:13 am UTC| Commentary Economy

Brazils inflation data for January has created significant uncertainty regarding the medium-term inflation trajectory. Under several assumptions, using a structural inflation model, there is a possibility of grim inflation...