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Fundamental Evaluation Series

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In a hope to return to robust and continued global growth in 2016, a strong footing is expected to come from various ‘growth-supporting factors. In this exclusive series of fundamental evaluations, we provide in-depth analytical views on ongoing structural adjustments, continuing demand/supply imbalances, recurring financial market volatility, purchasing power parities, short rates divergences, balance sheet divergences and intensifying geopolitical problems in light of the FX market.

Fundamental Evaluation Series

Fundamental Evaluation Series: Long-term yield spread vs. EUR/GBP

Jul 26, 2017 11:54 am UTC| Commentary Economy Central Banks

This chart shows the performance of EUR/GBP exchange rate in contrast to the performance of long-term yield divergence between 10-year German Bund and 10-year UK gilt. During our evaluation period beginning August...

Fundamental Evaluation Series

Fundamental Evaluation Series: USDJPY vs. yield divergence

Jul 26, 2017 11:07 am UTC| Commentary Economy Central Banks

This one pair has been at odds with yield divergence throughout early 2016 as the yen benefited from risk aversion and due to market participants doubts on BoJs abilities to ease policies further. It had shown...

Fundamental Evaluation Series

Fundamental Evaluation Series: GBP/USD vs. short-term yield divergence review

Jul 26, 2017 11:01 am UTC| Commentary Economy Central Banks

The chart above shows, how the relationship between GBP/USD and 2-year yield divergence has unfolded since 2012. The cozy relationship between the yield spread and the exchange rate, in this case, is quite visible. Back...

Fundamental Evaluation Series

Fundamental Evaluation Series: USD/CHF vs. yield divergence

Jul 26, 2017 10:58 am UTC| Commentary Economy Central Banks

During our evaluation period beginning 2012, the yield spread between the US 2-year bond and a Swiss equivalent has widened by almost 200 basis points but the exchange rate hasnt followed through as much as it should have...

Fundamental Evaluation Series

Fundamental Evaluation Series: Short-term yield spread vs. EUR/USD

Jul 26, 2017 08:34 am UTC| Commentary Economy Central Banks

The chart above shows, how the relationship between EUR/USD and 2-year yield divergence has unfolded since 2012. It is evident that these short rates have been a key influencing factor for the pair as policy divergence...

Fundamental Evaluation Series

Fundamental Evaluation Series: S&P 500 valuations based on oil and gold look very expensive

Jun 27, 2017 09:56 am UTC| Commentary

The US benchmark stock index, SP 500 is currently trading at 2438 as it continues its march to new record highs regularly. Since the election of Donald Trump, the benchmark stock index has risen by almost 14 percent and...

Fundamental Evaluation Series

Fundamental Evaluation Series: Long-term yield spread vs. EUR/GBP

Jun 27, 2017 09:27 am UTC| Commentary

This chart shows the performance of EUR/GBP exchange rate in contrast to the performance of long-term yield divergence between 10-year German bund and 10-year UK gilt. During our evaluation period beginning August...

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Economy

The US is one of the least trade-oriented countries in the world – despite laying the groundwork for today’s globalized system

Given the spate of news about international trade lately, Americans might be surprised to learn that the U.S. isnt very dependent on it. Indeed, looking at trade as a percentage of gross domestic product a metric...

Beyond the spin, beyond the handouts, here’s how to get a handle on what’s really happening on budget night

Three weeks from now, some of us will be presented with a mountain of budget papers, and just about all of us will get to hear about them on radio, TV or news websites on budget night. The quickest way to find out what...

Johannesburg in a time of darkness: Ivan Vladislavić’s new memoir reminds us of the city’s fragility

Ivan Vladislavić is Johannesburgs literary linkman. He tells us, in the first pages of his new book, The Near North, that before cities were lit, first by gaslight and later electricity, people of means paid torchbearers...

Economist Chris Richardson on an ‘ugly’ inflation result and the coming budget

With Jim Chalmerss third budget on May 14, Australians will be looking for some more cost-of-living relief beyond the tax cuts although they have been warned extra measures will be modest. As this weeks consumer price...

Inflation is slowly falling, while student debt is climbing: 6 graphs that explain today’s CPI

Australias inflation rate has fallen for the fifth successive quarter, and its now less than half of what it was back in late 2022. The annual rate peaked at 7.8% in the December quarter of 2022 and is now just 3.6%, in...

Politics

US Urges China, Russia to Reject AI Control in Nuclear Arms, Align with Global Norms

Paul Dean, a senior U.S. arms control official, emphasized the critical need for China and Russia to join the U.S. in declaring that humans will always decide on the deployment of nuclear weapons, not artificial...

South Africa’s youth are a generation lost under democracy – study

South African president Cyril Ramaphosa recently painted a rosy picture in which the countrys youth democracys children had enormous opportunities for advancement, all thanks to successive post-apartheid governments led...

Sadiq Khan on track for third term as London mayor – but nearly half of Londoners dissatisfied with performance

Polls have consistently shown that the incumbent mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, appears to be on track to win a third term in office at the upcoming mayoral elections on May 2. One poll we commissioned as part of our...

Biden administration tells employers to stop shackling workers with ‘noncompete agreements’

Most American workers are hired at will: Employers owe their employees nothing in the relationship except earned wages, and employees are at liberty to quit at their option. As the rule is generally stated, either party...

Labour can afford to be far more ambitious with its economic policies – voters are on board

To say that the Labour party is flying high in the polls is something of an understatement. But despite its consistent lead against the Tories, the opposition finds itself in a rather odd position: on the cusp of power but...

Science

IceCube researchers detect a rare type of energetic neutrino sent from powerful astronomical objects

About a trillion tiny particles called neutrinos pass through you every second. Created during the Big Bang, these relic neutrinos exist throughout the entire universe, but they cant harm you. In fact, only one of them is...

The Mars Sample Return mission has a shaky future, and NASA is calling on private companies for backup

A critical NASA mission in the search for life beyond Earth, Mars Sample Return, is in trouble. Its budget has ballooned from US$5 billion to over $11 billion, and the sample return date may slip from the end of this...

A Nasa rover has reached a promising place to search for fossilised life on Mars

While we go about our daily lives on Earth, a nuclear-powered robot the size of a small car is trundling around Mars looking for fossils. Unlike its predecessor Curiosity, Nasas Perseverance rover is explicitly intended to...

The rising flood of space junk is a risk to us on Earth – and governments are on the hook

A piece of space junk recently crashed through the roof and floor of a mans home in Florida. Nasa later confirmed that the object had come from unwanted hardware released from the international space station. The 700g,...

Peter Higgs was one of the greats of particle physics. He transformed what we know about the building blocks of the universe

Peter Higgs, who gave his name to the subatomic particle known as the Higgs boson, has died aged 94. He was always a modest man, especially when considering that he was one of the greats of particle physics the area of...

Technology

Bitcoin Surges Over $63K Amid Revitalized ETF Interest

In a whirlwind of crypto markets, Bitcoin stormed past the $63,000 mark, fueled by renewed ETF activity. Ethereum mirrored the bullish sentiment, holding steady above $3,100. Solana, XRP, and Cardano followed suit, marking...

Tesla's Supercharger Shake-up Sparks Chaos: Suppliers in Limbo Over Email Directive

A turbulent email to suppliers reveals internal discord in the wake of Teslas sweeping Supercharger team termination. The abrupt restructuring has left projects in limbo, signaling potential operational turmoil within the...

US Loosens EV Battery Rules, Expands Tax Credit Eligibility Amid Controversy

Amidst escalating tensions over electric vehicle (E.V.) tax credits, the U.S. government has relaxed stringent regulations, potentially widening eligibility for tax credits up to $7,500. This move, aimed at accelerating...

SHIB, BONK, WIF's Sudden Price Jumps; What's Behind Them?

Recent surges in the cryptocurrency market have caught the attention of traders, particularly with tokens like Shiba Inu (SHIB), Bonk (BONK), and Dogwifhat (WIF) experiencing notable price hikes. Analysts attribute this...

Snowden Issues Final Bitcoin Warning, Takes Aim at Elon Musk and Puppy-Killing Politician

Edward Snowden, the famed whistleblower and advocate for privacy, sent shockwaves across social media platforms with his latest flurry of posts. Targeting Bitcoin developers, tech mogul Elon Musk, and South Dakota Governor...