FxWirePro: Flaring at front-end, contraction against sterling – EUR CCY swaps as optimal hedging vehicle to lead the front

Jan 24, 2017 12:14 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

The policy rotation in the US should favor a further appreciation of the US dollar in 2017. This tends to undermine both USD lending to non-US borrowers and international FX reserves, two factors that will probably amplify...

Eurozone PMIs show tentative signs of rise in core inflationary pressures, ECB to keep close watch

Jan 24, 2017 11:51 am UTC| Insights & Views Economy

Eurozone Composite PMI for January fell slightly from the previous monthbut remained comfortably above the 50 mark signalling stronger GDP growth for the single currency area. IHS Markits Euro Zone Flash Composite...

FxWirePro: Are you aggressive on more RBNZ cuts in sight? How to short vega volatility – American knock outs to rescue

Jan 24, 2017 10:56 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views Central Banks

Since June, NZDUSD has been trading in the 0.70-0.74 range after a bullish first semester. At this stage, the interest rate differential already points towards a much lower NZDUSD, in the direction of our end-2017 forecast...

Global Geopolitics Series

India has been a post-truth society for years (and maybe the West has too)

Jan 24, 2017 08:53 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Major social change does not happen within the space of a year. Yet, to a large number of observers around the world, the post-truth phenomenon seemed to emerge from nowhere in 2016. Two key events of 2016 shaped our...

FxWirePro: Better data but falling real rates and tightening credit keep us bearish in NZD – Diagonal strips to pawn positive skews in smart hedge

Jan 24, 2017 07:44 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

The Decembers highs of (0.7215) and an interim retracement in the 0.7240-50 area still attract but the push above 0.7200 is not accelerating. A slip now below 0.7180 could trigger a flush back to 0.7075-90. NZD/USD...

FxWirePro: Mounting TRY IVs signals shift in CBRT’s monetary policy – Reverse Call Spreads indicates rosy picture

Jan 24, 2017 05:46 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views Central Banks

Please be noted that the rising USDTRY IVs have been signaling CBRT is going to be bringing change in its monetary policy that is scheduled today. As shown in the diagram, ATM IVs of 1m and 10d tenors have successively...

FxWirePro: 6m delta puts for APAC crosses, gamma positive and vega neutral strategies appear most conducive hedging vehicles for EUR/USD

Jan 23, 2017 13:19 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

You could wonder which trades might offer the best opportunity for hedging an extended appreciation of the US dollar over the next few months. Entering long volatility trades was one of the main themes highlighted in this...