The rapid rise of AI stocks has reshaped the market, but 2025 is shaping up to be the year when investors demand more than innovation. Wall Street’s focus is shifting to measurable returns on these transformative technologies.
AI-Driven Stocks Lead the Charge in 2023
According to David Dietze, a senior portfolio strategist at Peapack Private Wealth Management, in the most recent episode of Quartz AI Factor (via Quartz), a video series set at the Nasdaq MarketSite, companies like Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, and Apple may remain among the top beneficiaries of the stock boom driven by artificial intelligence.
Nvidia, the artificial intelligence chipmaker dubbed "the granddaddy of them all" by Dietze, has seen astounding revenue growth and unprecedented demand for its processors propel its stock price more than 170% this year, giving the company a market capitalization of around $3.3 trillion.
Additionally, getting in on the chip game, e-commerce behemoth Amazon saw a 50% jump in share price. Both Apple and Alphabet, the parent company of Google, saw stock price increases of over 35%.
Magnificent 7 Dominates S&P 500 Gains
Exuberance surrounding new artificial intelligence technology has propelled the Magnificent 7—Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla—towards a third of the S&P 500 index's gains this year. This "unusual degree of market concentration" may become a significant threat in 2025, according to Goldman Sachs.
Most of the time, stocks that have gained ground due to the AI boom have done so regardless of changes in interest rates. As the market recovers from the post-presidential election rise, however, that doesn't imply they won't have a downturn. That may occur in the not-too-distant future, according to Dietze.
Innovation Drives Growth but Risks Remain
"They’re riding a secular tailwind of extreme innovation that could plow right through that," Dietze said. “Nevertheless, no sector operates in a silo or a vacuum. If everything else around them is struggling, they’re gonna struggle a little bit, too.”
The phrase "show me the money" will be prominent in 2025, according to Dietze. Dietze said that investors will begin demanding evidence of profits despite the fact that large corporations like Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet have invested billions into AI collaborations and internal projects.
Wall Street Shifts Focus to Returns
“Wall Street’s the type of place where it’s like, ‘Show me the money,' like, yesterday,” he said. “These investments and capital expenditures are great, but when does the cash flow start coming in? And right now many AI companies have gotten a pass on that, but I think increasingly Wall Street’s going to say, ‘No, we’ve seen the capital expenditures, you’ve got the AI label, but now we want to see the cash flows coming in from that.’”
"And that’s what we’re gonna be watching so carefully next year," Dietze expressed.