Market Roundup
•Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Oct): -0.4%, 0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
•Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep): 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous
•US Manufacturing PMI (Nov): 48.8, 48.8 forecast, 48.5 previous
•US S&P Global Composite PMI (Nov): 55.3, 54.1 previous
•US Services PMI (Nov): 57.0, 55.2 forecast, 55.0 previous
•US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Nov): 2.6%, 2.6% forecast, 2.6% previous
•US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Nov): 3.2%, 3.1% forecast, 3.1% previous
•US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Nov): 76.9, 78.5 forecast, 78.5 previous
•US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov): 71.8, 73.0 forecast, 73.0 previous
•US Michigan Current Conditions (Nov): 63.9, 64.4 forecast, 64.4 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•No data ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro slumped to a two-year low on Friday after data showed Euro zone business activity contracted in November. HCOB's preliminary composite euro zone Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by S&P Global, sank to a 10-month low of 48.1 in November, below the 50 level that marks expansion from contraction, and the 50.0 estimate. The soft data solidified predictions that the European Central Bank will reduce interest rates in the upcoming month, causing Bund yields to decrease and causing the euro to fall to its lowest level against the dollar since December 2022. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, rose 0.41% to 107.50, with the euro down 0.54% at $1.0416 after falling to $1.0333, its lowest since Nov. 30, 2022. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0463(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0520(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0400`(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0326(Daily low)
GBP/USD: The pound fell to six-month low after the UK S&P Global Flash Composite PMI dipped below 50 in November, signaling business contraction. Britain's PMI fell to 49.9 in November, from 51.8 in October. The government's plan to increase taxes on businesses contributed to the first contraction in private sector activity in over a year, adding to recent indications the economy was losing steam. Separate data also from Friday showed retail sales volumes dropped by 0.7% in October from September, more than expected and the sharpest drop since June. Traders expect the Bank of England to keep interest rates steady next month but anticipate around 72 basis points of cuts next year, up from 67 bps before the data release. Sterling weakened 0.49% to $1.2528 and was on track for its second straight weekly decline. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2612(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2721(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2488 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2400(Psychological level)
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar initially gained against its U.S. counterpart but gave some ground investors digested upbeat Canadian retail sales data contributed to reduced expectations for Bank of Canada interest-rate cuts. Canadian retail sales rose 0.4% in September from August as consumers spent more at grocery stores and supermarkets, while preliminary data showed an October gain of 0.7%.It follows hotter-than-expected consumer price index data on Tuesday and the government's proposal on Thursday of C$6.3 billion ($4.5 billion) in new spending that analysts expect to boost the economy. Investors have largely set aside expectations for another unusually large half-percentage-point rate cut by the BoC next month after the central bank cut by that magnitude in October .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4106 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.451 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4052 (38.2%fib A), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3980 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Friday after S&P Global’s preliminary measure of U.S. business activity in November rose to its highest level since April 2022.The U.S. Composite PMI Output Index climbed to 55.3 from a 54.1 reading in October, with the services sector beating expectations. Expectations on the Federal Reserve's policy move in December have recently swayed between a pause and a cut, as investors weigh the likely impact of Trump's plans on price pressures. There is a 59.6% probability the central bank will lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points, as per the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Geopolitics were top of mind this week as investors monitored a missile exchange between Ukraine and Russia, after Moscow lowered its threshold for a nuclear retaliation. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.28(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.98(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 153.63(21SMA).
Equities Recap
Europe's stock on Friday as markets ramped up European Central Bank interest ratecut bets after data showed a sharp decline in euro area business activity..
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 1.38 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.92 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.58 percent.
Wall Street indexes rose on Friday, headed for weekly gains as investors took comfort from data pointing to robust economic activity in the world's biggest economy.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.97 percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.33 percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.15 % percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices breached the $2,700 threshold for the first time in over two weeks on Friday, on track for their biggest weekly gain in nearly two years, as safe-haven demand outweighed dollar strength and lower expectations of a U.S. rate cut next month.
Spot gold surged 1.5% at $2,709.24 per ounce by 01:51 p.m. ET (1851 GMT), marking its highest since Nov.6. U.S. gold futures settled 1.4% higher at $2,712.20.
Oil prices climbed about 1% on Friday, settling at a two-week high, as the intensifying war in Ukraine this week boosted the market's geopolitical risk premium.
Brent futures rose 94 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $75.17 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.14, or 1.6%, to settle at $71.24.
