Market Roundup
• US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,834K, 1,828K forecast, 1,821K previous
• US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug): 0.5%, 0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous
• US Core PCE Prices (Q2): 2.80%, 2.80% forecast, 2.80% previous
• US Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q2): 3.5%, 1.7% forecast, -2.1% previous
• US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug): 0.0%, -2.8% forecast, 9.9% previous
• US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Aug): -0.2%, 10.3% previous
• US GDP (QoQ) (Q2): 3.0%, 3.0% forecast, 1.6% previous
• US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q2): 2.5%, 2.5% forecast, 3.0% previous
• US GDP Sales (Q2): 1.9%, 2.2% forecast, 2.0% previous
• US Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex Air (MoM) (Aug): 0.2%, 0.0% forecast, -0.2% previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims: 218K, 224K forecast, 222K previous
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 224.75K, 228.25K previous
• US PCE Prices (Q2): 2.5%, 2.5% forecast, 3.4% previous
• US Real Consumer Spending (Q2): 2.8%, 2.9% forecast, 1.9% previous
• Canada Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (Jul): 4.48%, N/A forecast, 4.16% previous
• US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Aug): 0.6%, 0.9% forecast, -5.5% previous
• US Pending Home Sales Index (Aug): 70.6 , 70.2 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•23:30 Japan CPI (YoY) (Sep) 1.6% previous
•23:30 Japan Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Sep): 2.0% forecast,2.4%.6% previous
•23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI (YoY) (Sep) 2.6% previous
•23:30 Japan CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy (MoM) (Sep): 0.5% previous
•23:50 Japan Foreign Bonds Buying: 2,100.1B previous
•23:50 Japan Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks: -3,005.8B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Thursday as dollar weakened in choppy trading after a boost from healthy U.S. economic data faded. Data showed U.S. weekly jobless claims fell by 4,000 to a four-month low of 218,000, below the 225,000 forecast by economists polled. Other reports showed corporate profits increased at a more robust pace than initially thought in the second quarter while gross domestic product grew at an unrevised 3%.A gauge of new orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods unexpectedly rose in August, although business spending on equipment appears to have waned in the third quarter. Immediate resistance is noted at 1.1198 (23.6%fib), with a breakout potentially pushing the pair towards 1.1218 (Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is at 1.1111 (38.2%fib), a drop below this level could lead the pair towards 1.1049(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound rose close to its two-and-a-half-year peak against the dollar as Beijing's latest pledge for more policy measures boosted risk sentiment. Additionally, the divergence in monetary policy between the Bank of England and other major central banks also bolstered the pound. China's leaders have committed to deploying essential fiscal spending to attain an economic growth target of approximately 5%. This announcement comes on the heels of a series of bold policy easing measures enacted by the central bank earlier this week. Sterling rose 0.71% to $1.3412, on track for its biggest daily percentage gain in a month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3417(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3449(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3335(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3274(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar gained slightly against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday, though the gain was tempered by falling oil prices and anticipation of domestic GDP data that could influence expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. Economists forecast that the GDP data, set to be released on Friday, will indicate a 0.1% growth in July compared to June. The Bank of Canada has expressed a desire for stronger growth to address economic slack. Investors are anticipating a total easing of 67 basis points in the final two meetings of the year, suggesting a significant likelihood of one unusually large half-percentage-point cut. Since June, the central bank has implemented three rate cuts, each by a quarter percentage point, leaving the benchmark rate at 4.25%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3493 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3543(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3422(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3401 (Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar surged against the greenback on Thursday, fueled by reports of potential additional stimulus from China. Authorities in China are reportedly considering a substantial $142 billion support package for major lenders to help revive the economy amid ongoing deflationary pressures. In contrast, data released on Thursday indicated that job vacancies fell by 5.2% in the three months leading up to August, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of decline as labor market demand continues to weaken. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of Australia, which has dismissed the possibility of a rate cut this year, warned households against accumulating excessive debt as interest rates begin to decline. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6902(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6927(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6836(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6814(Sep 24th low).
USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against yen on Thursday as investors assessed a range of U.S. data suggesting a generally healthy economy. Several U.S. central bank officials spoke throughout the day, but many, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, refrained from commenting on monetary policy. Recently, the Federal Reserve has shifted its focus from inflation to maintaining a healthy labor market, having implemented a larger-than-usual 50-basis-point interest rate cut last week. The market is fully pricing in at least a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed's meeting on November 6-7, with a 52.1% probability of an additional half-percentage-point reduction, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.Strong resistance can be seen at 144.73 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.00 (psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 141.70(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 140.36(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares soared on Thursday, led by stocks sensitive to the Chinese market, including luxury goods and mining companies, in response to news of aggressive economic stimulus from China. Additionally, chip stocks rose following a strong revenue forecast from U.S.-based Micron Technology.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.20 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 1.59 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 2.33 percent.
The S&P 500 reached a record closing high on Thursday, with the Dow and Nasdaq also gaining ground as rally was driven by a surge in Micron Technology shares and a robust U.S. jobless claims report that alleviated concerns about the labor market.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.62% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.40 % percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.59% percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices dropped over 3% on Thursday following a Financial Times report that Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, plans to abandon its $100 price target in anticipation of increasing output, along with OPEC members and allies, in December.
Brent crude futures settled down $1.86, or 2.53%, to $71.60 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished down $2.02, or 2.90%, at $67.67 per barrel.
