Market Roundup
• Sweden M3 Money Supply (Aug) 4,717.3B, 4,755.4B previous
• Sweden Household Lending Growth (YoY) (Aug) 0.9% , 0.7% previous
• Sweden Trade Balance (Aug) -5.30B , 5.90B forecast, 6.60B previous
• GfK German Consumer Climate (Oct) -21.2, 22.4 forecast, -21.9 previous
•Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q3) 1.00%, 1.00% forecast, 1.25% previous
•Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Aug) 2.9%, 2.5% forecast, 2.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,829K previous
•12:30 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug) 0.1% -0.2% previous
•12:30 USD Core PCE Prices (Q2) 2.80% forecast, 3.70% previous
•12:30 USD Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q2) 1.7% forecast,-2.7% previous
•12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug) -2.8%forecast, 9.9% previous
•12:30 USD Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Aug) 10.3% previous
•12:30 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 3.0% forecast,1.4% previous
•12:30 USD GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q2) 2.5% forecast 3.1% previous
•12:30 USD GDP Sales (Q2) 2.2% forecast,1.8% previous
•12:30 USD Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) (Aug) 0.0% forecast -0.1% previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 224K forecast,219K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 227.50K previous
•12:30 US PCE Prices (Q2) 2.5% forecast,3.4% previous
•12:30 US Real Consumer Spending (Q2) 2.9% forecast, 1.5% previous
•12:30 Canada Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (Jul) 3.99% previous
•12:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 1.4% previous
•14:00 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Aug) 0.9%forecast, -5.5% previous
•14:00 US Pending Home Sales Index (Aug) 70.2 previous
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 52B forecast,58B previous
•15:00 US KC Fed Composite Index (Sep) -3 previous
•15:00 US KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep) 9 forecast, 6 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•13:10 US Fed Collins Speaks
•13:10 US FOMC Member Kugler Speaks
•13:15 US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
•13:20 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
•13:25 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
•13:30 EU ECB President Lagarde Speaks
•13:45 EU German Buba Vice President Buch Speaks
•14:30 US Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks previous
•17:00 US Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
• 17:00 US FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against the dollar on Thursday as the market braced for a day packed with economic data and insights from Federal Reserve officials, including brief comments from Chairman Jerome Powell.Key data releases scheduled for 8:30 am ET include weekly jobless claims, durable goods orders for August, and the final update for Q2 GDP, which will incorporate annual revisions for the past five years. Powell will kick off his remarks at 9:20 am ET, followed closely by New York Fed President John Williams at 9:25 am ET.At 10:00 am ET, the market will receive pending home sales data for August, which could provide insight into the housing market's health. This will be followed by weekly natural gas stock updates at 10:30 am ET. The euro was up at $1.1162, after pulling back sharply from $1.1118. Immediate resistance is noted at 1.1198 (23.6%fib), with a breakout potentially pushing the pair towards 1.1218 (Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is at 1.1111 (38.2%fib), a drop below this level could lead the pair towards 1.1049(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound rose close to its two-and-a-half-year peak against the dollar, driven by a surge in investors' risk appetite following China's stimulus plan. Additionally, the divergence in monetary policy between the Bank of England and other major central banks also bolstered the pound. Persistently high UK inflation has led to expectations of a slower easing cycle from the BoE, while the Federal Reserve is increasingly focused on supporting the labor market through looser monetary conditions.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3417(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3449(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3335(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3274(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar saw a strong gain against greenback on Thursday, driven by news of potential additional stimulus from China. Reports suggested that Chinese authorities are considering a substantial $142 billion support package for major lenders, aimed at revitalizing the economy from its ongoing deflationary pressure. Meanwhile, Data released Thursday showed job vacancies fell by 5.2% in the three months to August, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of decline as labor market demand continued to soften. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia, which has ruled out a rate cut this year, cautioned households against taking on excessive debt as interest rates begin to decline. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6902(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6927(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6836(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6814(Sep 24th low).
USD/JPY: The dollar fell against the yen on Thursday on increasing risk appetite with traders looking ahead to speeches from key Federal Reserve policymakers and economic data later in the day for clues on the pace of interest rate cuts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver opening remarks at a conference on Thursday, alongside New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr.Additionally, U.S. jobless claims data released on Thursday and the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index the Fed's preferred inflation measure on Friday will be closely monitored for further rate cues. Strong resistance can be seen at 144.73 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.00 (psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 141.70(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 140.36(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European equities gained on Thursday, riding the wave of strong gains in Asian stocks, fueled by news of significant economic stimulus measures from China.
At (GMT 12:22),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.11 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.16 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 1.55 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rebounded and looked set to scale a fresh peak on Thursday, on mounting expectations for another U.S. interest rate cut this year, while investors awaited Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's address later today for more policy cues.
Spot gold climbed 0.4% to $2,668.05 per ounce, as of 0913 GMT, a few dollars away from the record $2,670.43 it hit on Wednesday.
