America’s roundup: Dollar slips in choppy trading, Wall Street ends higher, Gold gains, Oil ends higher

Market Roundup

•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,829K 1,850K forecast,  1,843K previous

•US Current Account (Q2) -266.8B -259.0B forecast,   -241.0B previous

•US Initial Jobless Claims 219K 230K forecast,    231K previous

•US   Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 227.50K forecast,    231.00K previous

•US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep) 1.7 ,-0.8 forecast,  -7.0 previous

•US Philly Fed Business Conditions (Sep) 15.8 ,15.4 previous

•US Philly Fed CAPEX Index (Sep) 25.00, 12.00 previous

•US Philly Fed Employment (Sep) 10.7, -5.7 previous

•US Philly Fed New Orders (Sep) -1.5 ,14.6 previous

•US Philly Fed Prices Paid (Sep) 34.00, 24.00 previous

•US Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Aug) -2.5% 1.5% previous

•US Existing Home Sales (Aug) 3.86M 3.92M forecast,   3.96M previous

•US US Leading Index (MoM) (Aug) -0.2% -0.3% forecast,  -0.6% previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)

•03:00 New Zealand Credit Card Spending (YoY) (Aug) -3.8% previous

Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)

• 03:00   Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.25% forecast,   0.25% previous

Currency Forecast

EUR/USD: The euro gained strength on Thursday as markets reacted to the substantial 50-basis-point interest rate cut and the shift to an easing monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. Investor expectations had largely leaned towards a dovish outcome in the days leading up to the Fed's decision on Wednesday, with money markets pricing in about a 65% chance of a 50-basis-point cut. However, economists surveyed by Reuters were mostly anticipating a 25-basis-point reduction. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.38% to 100.64, while the euro rose 0.4% to $1.1160. Immediate resistance is noted at 1.1186 (23.6%fib), with a breakout potentially pushing the pair towards 1.1218 (Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is at 1.1111 (38.2%fib), a drop below this level could lead the pair towards 1.1049(50%fib).

GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened against the dollar on Thursday after the Bank of England decided to hold rates and extend its bond reduction plan. The Bank maintained interest rates at 5.0%, emphasizing caution regarding future cuts, and opted not to accelerate the reduction of its bond holdings, alleviating potential budget pressures for Finance Minister Rachel Reeves. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to keep rates steady, with only external member Swati Dhingra advocating for a quarter-point cut following last month’s first reduction in borrowing costs since 2020. Sterling briefly surged above $1.33, reaching its highest level since March 2022, as investors reassessed their expectations for further rate cuts. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3308(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3331(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3154(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3105(Sep 4th low).

USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened to nearly a two-week high against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, as the Federal Reserve's larger-than-usual interest rate cut enhanced the outlook for the global economy .The Bank of Canada has been lowering borrowing costs as well. While the central bank makes rate decisions based on consensus, this doesn't imply that all governing council members agree on the future trajectory for rates, according to BoC Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent in a speech in Sherbrooke, Quebec. Canadian retail sales data for July, set to be released on Friday, may provide insights into the pace of anticipated further easing by the BoC. Economists expect sales to increase by 0.6% following a 0.3% decline in June .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3600 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3651 (Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3529 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3500 (Psychological level).

 USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Thursday as traders reacted to a notable interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, marking the first reduction in borrowing costs in over four years. The U.S. central bank lowered the overnight rate by half a percentage point, surpassing the usual quarter-point adjustment, due to growing confidence that inflation will continue to move toward its 2% annual target. This decision signals the Fed's commitment to safeguarding the labor market and steering the economy away from potential recession. The pair was up 0.34 percent, trading at 143.00 after hitting a daily high of 143.83. Strong resistance can be seen at 143.72 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.00 (psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 140.80(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 139.34(Lower BB).

Equities Recap

European stocks surged on Thursday following the U.S. Federal Reserve's 50-basis-point rate cut, with indications that any further easing would be cautious. This raised optimism for a soft landing for the American economy.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.91 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 1.55 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 2.29 percent.

The S&P 500 surged to a record high close on Thursday, the day after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points and indicated more rate cuts were on the horizon.

Dow Jones closed up by 1.26 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 1.70 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 2.51 percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold prices climbed over 1% on Thursday as the U.S. Federal Reserve initiated its monetary easing cycle with a half-percentage-point cut, propelling bullion to an all-time high and just a few cents below the crucial $2,600 mark in the previous session.

Spot gold increased by 1.2% to $2,590.47 per ounce by 2:02 p.m. ET (1802 GMT), while U.S. gold futures settled 0.6% higher at $2,614.60.

Oil prices extended their recent recovery rally and rose more than 1% on Thursday as a large cut in U.S. interest rates and declining global stockpiles helped offset some of the demand concerns arising from weak consumption in China.

Brent futures settled at $74.88 a barrel, up by $1.23, or 1.7%. U.S. crude gained $1.04, or 1.5%, to $71.95 a barrel.