Market Roundup
•Canada Dec Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.6%, 0.7% forecast,-0.5% previous
•Canada Dec Retail Sales (MoM) 0.9%, 0.8% forecast, -0.2% previous
•US Jan Chicago Fed National Activity -0.30,-0.15 previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 201K, 217K forecast, 212K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,862K,1,885K forecast, 1,895K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 215.25K, 218.50K previous
•US Feb Manufacturing PMI 51.5, 50.5 forecast,50.7 previous
•US Feb Services PMI 51.3,52.4 forecast,52.5 previous
•US Feb S&P Global Composite PMI 51.4, 52.0 previous
•US Jan Existing Home Sales 4.00M, 3.96M forecast,3.78M previous
•US Jan Existing Home Sales (MoM) 3.1%,-1.0% previous
•US Natural Gas Storage -60B,-59B forecast,-49B previous
•US Crude Oil Inventories 3.514M, 3.879M forecast,12.018M previous
•US 4-Week Bill Auction 5.285%, 5.285% forecast,5.280% previous
•US 8-Week Bill Auction 5.275%, 5.275% forecast,5.270% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 01:30 China Jan House Prices (YoY) -0.4% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro initially gained against dollar on Thursday but gains eroded after the release of ECB minutes, which indicated that policymakers were hesitant to discuss rate cuts. The ECB left policy unchanged at the Jan 24-25 meeting and its president Christine Lagarde pushed back on talk of interest rate cuts, arguing that price pressures remained abundant, so there was no room for any talk of policy reversal.All in all, members signalled that continuity, caution and patience were still needed, the ECB account of the meeting showed. Rate cut expectations have been on rollercoaster this year. Markets at one point expected the ECB to start cutting as early as March and deliver 150 basis points of moves this year.The ECB will next meet on March 7 and while no rate cut is seen, it is still likely to change its language. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0824(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0889 (Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0763(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0742 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound strengthened against dollar on Thursday as upbeat UK PMI data supported sterling.Britain's economy kept up its early 2024 momentum with a survey showing strong growth for services firms and business optimism at a two-year high, but inflation pressures are likely to keep the Bank of England wary about cutting borrowing costs.Adding to signs that Britain's shallow recession of last year is likely to be short-lived, the preliminary February S&P Global/CIPS UK Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which spans services and manufacturing firms, rose to 53.3, the highest in nine months, from January's 52.9.Economists polled by had forecast no change from January's reading. Sterling gained 0.17% to $1.2656.The pound earlier reached $1.2710, also the highest since Feb. 2.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2664(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2702(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2770(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2701(61.8%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as weaker dollar and slightly better than expected Canadian retail sales data supported Canadian dollar. Canada's retail sales in December slightly beat expectations as the holiday season spurred people to spend more for buying cars and clothes and at supermarkets, data showed on Thursday. Retail sales grew by 0.9% in December on a monthly basis, from a revised nearly flat growth seen in November, Statistics Canada said. The Canadian dollar marginally strengthened by 0.04% to 1.3500 against the U.S. dollar .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3509 (50% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3551(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3544(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3388(23.6% fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against yen on Thursday as investors waited on new data catalysts for clues on when the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to begin cutting interest rates.The greenback has bounced this year as strong growth and sticky inflation lead traders to push back expectations on when the U.S. central bank will begin easing. But after hitting a three-month high last week, the U.S. currency has been largely consolidating. U.S. data on Thursday showed that jobless claims unexpectedly fell last week, while U.S. business activity cooled in February, with a measure of prices paid for inputs falling to the lowest level in nearly 3-1/2 years. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) due next week may be the next major release to provide clues for Fed policy. Strong resistance can be seen at 150.78 (Higher BB) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.56(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.79(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 149.00(Psychological level )
Equities Recap
European shares rose to a record high on Thursday, boosted by a rally in global stocks that also saw Japan's blue-chip Nikkei index hit an all-time high.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.29 percent, Germany's Dax closed up by 1.47 percent, France’s CAC closed up by 1.27 percent.
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both surged to record closing highs on Thursday, powered by investors piling into growth and technology stocks the day after artificial intelligence poster child Nvidia's bumper earnings and outlook.
Dow Jones was closed up by 1.18%percent, S&P 500 was up by 2.11% percent, Nasdaq was up by 2.96% percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil futures settled higher on Thursday as hostilities continued in the Red Sea with Iran-aligned Houthis stepping up attacks near Yemen, but a large build in U.S. crude inventories weighed on gains.
Brent crude futures settled higher, up 64 cents or 0.77% at $83.67 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled higher, up 70 cents or 0.9% at $78.61 a barrel.
Gold prices fell from a near two-week high on Thursday after jobless claims data indicated a strong economy, while investors awaited further economic data for guidance on the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate stance.
Spot gold lost 0.1% to $2,022.74 an ounce by 01:42 p.m. ET (1842 GMT), after hitting its highest since Feb. 9 of $2034.69 earlier in the session.U.S. gold futures settled 0.2% lower to $2030.7.
