Market Roundup
•US Redbook (YoY) 4.5%, 4.9% previous
•US May S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) 1.0%, 1.4% previous
•US May S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) 6.8%,6.5% forecast,7.2% previous
•US May S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) 0.3%,0.4% previous
• US May House Price Index (YoY) 5.7% ,6.3% previous
•US May House Price Index 424.6, 424.3 previous
•US May House Price Index (MoM) 0.0%,0.2%forecast,0.2% previous
•US Jun JOLTs Job Openings 8.184M,8.020M forecast,8.140M previous
•US CB Consumer Confidence 100.3, 99.7 forecast,100.4 previous
•US Jul Dallas Fed Services Revenues 7.7, 1.9 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•23:50 Japan Jun Large Scale Retail Sales YoY (YoY) 4.0% previous
•23:50 Japan Jun Retail Sales (YoY) 3.3% forecast, 3.0% previous
•23:50 Japan Aug Industrial Production forecast 2m ahead (MoM) 3.6% previous
•23:50 Japan Jun Industrial Production (MoM) -4.2% forecast, 3.6% previous
•01:00 New Zealand Jul ANZ Business Confidence 6.1 previous
•01:00 New Zealand Jul NBNZ Own Activity 12.2% previous
•01:30 Australia CPI (YoY) (Q2) 3.8% forecast,3.6% previous
•01:30 Australia Jun Housing Credit 0.4% forecast,0.4% previous
•01:30 Australia Jun Private Sector Credit (MoM) 0.4% forecast,0.4% previous
•01:30 Australia Jun Weighted mean CPI (YoY) 3.80% forecast,4.00% previous
•01:30 China Jul Manufacturing PMI 49.4 forecast, 49.5 previous
•01:30 China Jul Non-Manufacturing PMI 50.2 forecast,50.5 previous
•01:30 China Jul Chinese Composite PMI 50.5 previous
•01:30 Australia CPI (QoQ) (Q2) 1.0% forecast, 1.0% previous
•01:30 Australia Jun Retail Sales (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.6% previous
Looking Ahead Evnets And Other Releases (GMT)
• 03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% forecast,0.10% previous
• 04:00 Japan BoJ BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)
•06:30 Japan BoJ Press Conference
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on as investors digested Eurozone and German GDP data ahead of major central bank meetings. The euro zone economy grew slightly more than expected in the three months to June, but a mixed underlying picture and a string of pessimistic surveys cloud the outlook for the rest of the year.Data showed the German economy unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter after skirting a recession at the beginning of the year, with a rise in inflation in July, underlining the continuing struggles of the euro zone's biggest economy. Investor focus this week will remain on the Federal Reserve, which concludes its two-day rate-setting meeting on Wednesday, with investors anticipating a signal that it could start cutting interest rates in September. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0868(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0909 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0815(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0790(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped against the dollar on Tuesday as investors looked to the Bank of England's (BoE) interest rate decision later in the week and assessed the fallout of spending cuts announced by the new British finance minister. Traders are pricing in a near 60% chance that the British central bank will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.0% on August 1. With the decision so finely balanced investors are nervous about trading sterling ahead of the decision. Investors are also awaiting the Bank of Japan and the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions on Wednesday, while U.S. payrolls data could set the tone for financial markets later in the week. Sterling traded down 0.05% at $1.2833, after having touched a near three-week low of $1.2807 against the dollar in the prior session. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2906(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2941(July 24tth high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2824(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2749(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar was set to conclude its longest losing streak in seven years against the U.S. dollar, as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's policy decision later this week. Investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its policy announcement on Wednesday, but they expect a signal that rate cuts may be approaching.Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada has already initiated an easing cycle. Last week, it reduced its benchmark rate to 4.50%, marking the second cut since June. The price of oil, a key export for Canada, declined due to concerns about weaker demand growth from China. U.S. crude oil futures fell 1.3% to $74.86 per barrel. The loonie was trading nearly unchanged at 1.3847 to the U.S. dollar , after nine straight days of declines. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3858 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.38822 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3811 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3786 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar fell on Tuesday as the Japanese yen strengthened, following reports that the Bank of Japan might raise rates to 0.25% when it wraps up its two-day meeting on Wednesday. At its two-day meeting concluding on Wednesday, the Bank of Japan is expected to outline a quantitative tightening (QT) plan that could reduce monthly bond purchases by about half over the next 1 to 2 years, aligning with prevalent market forecasts. Despite this, over three-quarters of economists surveyed between July 10 and 18 anticipate the BOJ will maintain its current stance. Money markets are pricing in a 64% probability of a 10 basis points rate hike. The BOJ’s decision will be announced just hours before the Federal Reserve's, which is anticipated to keep rates unchanged before potentially cutting them as early as September.Strong resistance can be seen at 153.73(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.03 (50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.12(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 151.41 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares closed higher on Tuesday, driven by earnings-related gains across various sectors. The market's attention is now focused on the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision and the potential implications for future monetary policy.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.22 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.49 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.42 percent.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both fell, pressured by weak performance in chip and large-cap stocks, as investors awaited earnings reports from major tech companies later in the week. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted modest gains
Dow Jones closed up by 0.50% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.50 % percent, Nasdaq settled down by 1.31% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose by about 1% as investors remained hopeful that the U.S. Federal Reserve might signal a potential interest rate cut at the conclusion of its policy meeting this week.
Spot gold was up 0.8% at $2,403.47 per ounce as of 1747 GMT. U.S. gold futures settled 1% higher at $2,451.9.
Oil prices slid about 1% to a seven-week low as investors were concerned over potentially weakening demand from China and expectations that OPEC+ will likely continue with plans to increase supply.
Brent futures delivery fell $1.15, or 1.4%, to settle at $78.63. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.08, or 1.4%, to $74.73.
