Market Roundup
• New Zealand Aug ANZ Business Confidence 50.6,27.1 previous
• New Zealand Aug NBNZ Own Activity 37.1%,16.3% previous
• Australia Building Capital Expenditure (MoM) (Q2) -3.8%,-0.9% previous
• Australia Plant/Machinery Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q2) -0.5%,3.7% previous
• Australia Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q2) -2.2%,0.9%forecast, 1.9% previous
•Japan Aug Household Confidence 36.7,36.9 forecast, 36.7 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•07:00 Spanish Aug Core CPI (YoY) 2.8% previous
•07:00 Spanish Aug CPI (YoY) 2.4% forecast, 2.8% previous
•07:00 Spanish Aug CPI (MoM) 0.1% forecast, -0.5% previous
•07:00 Spanish Aug HICP (MoM) 0.2% forecast, -0.7% previous
•09:00 EU Aug Business and Consumer Survey 95.8 previous
•09:00 EU Aug Business Climate -0.61 previous
•09:00 EUR Aug Consumer Confidence -13.4 forecast, -13.0 previous
•09:00 EU Aug Consumer Inflation Expectation 11.2 previous
•09:00 EU Aug Selling Price Expectations 6.8 previous
•09:00 EUAug Services Sentiment 5.2 forecast, 4.8 previous
•09:00 EU Aug Industrial Sentiment -10.6 forecast, -10.5 previous
•12:00 German CPI (YoY) (Aug) 2.1% forecast, 2.3% previous
•12:00 German CPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.0% forecast, 0.3% previous
•12:00 German HICP (YoY) (Aug) 2.3% forecast, 2.6% previous
•12:00 German HICP (MoM) (Aug) 0.0% forecast, 0.5% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 07:15 ECB's Schnabel Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against the dollar on Thursday as U.S. dollar failed to sustain its bounce in the run up to a key U.S. inflation reading at the end of the week. Friday's release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, will be the key event of a week otherwise sparse in major market-moving data, resulting in currencies remaining mostly rangebound. The dollar struggled to find support after rising 0.48% in the previous session. Meanwhile, the euro edged closer to its 13-month high. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1184(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1200(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1110(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1047 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as the dollar struggled to maintain its bounce ahead of key U.S. inflation data. The focus is on the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, set for release on Friday, which could provide insights into the Fed’s policy direction. Additionally, U.S. weekly jobless claims data will be released later in the day, gaining significance given Fed Chair Powell's recent concerns about the labor market. Markets have fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed next month, with a 34.5% chance of a larger 50-basis-point reduction, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Sterling rose 0.08% to $1.3201, but was some distance away from Tuesday's peak of $1.3269. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3284(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3315(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3115(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3052(50%fib).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar steadied near eight-month highs against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, supported by a slight weakening of the U.S. dollar and momentum buyers targeting additional resistance levels. The Aussie was also supported by July inflation data that topped market forecasts, supporting the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) contention that a rate cut was unlikely this year. As a result, the market has pared back the probability of a November rate cut to 42%, from 56% before the data. The Australian dollar was last trading at $0.6793 against US dollar , just off a top of $0.6812 Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6812(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6829(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6733 (July 10th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6705(38.2%fib).
NZD/USD: New Zealand dollar rose against dollar on Thursday after data showed New Zealand business confidence soared in August. New Zealand's business confidence surged in August to its highest level in a decade, according to an ANZ Bank survey released on Thursday. The survey's headline measure revealed that a net 50.6% of respondents anticipated economic improvement over the next year, up from 27.1% in the July survey. This increase was driven by a strong rise in forward-looking activity indicators. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6300(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6312 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6233 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6180(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against the yen on Thursday as traders looked ahead to a crucial U.S. inflation reading at the end of the week. Friday’s release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measurewill be the week's main event . Investor expectations for imminent U.S. rate cuts were reinforced by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks at Jackson Hole last week, where he indicated that the "time has come" to reduce rates, aligning with recent signals from other Fed policymakers. Strong resistance can be seen at 145.00(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.56(38.2 %fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.75(23.6 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 142.28(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Japan's Nikkei share average declined on Thursday, as technology stocks weakened following Nvidia's forecasts, which failed to meet the expectations of some growth-focused investors.
The Nikkei fell 0.39% to 38,220.34 , having dropped as much as 1.12% earlier in the day.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices inched higher on Thursday, supported by a weaker dollar and expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, as attention shifted to a crucial U.S. inflation report.
Spot gold was up 0.5% to $2,513.77 per ounce, as of 0250 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.4% to $2,546.80.
Oil prices edged higher after two consecutive days of decline, as worries about demand from China and the U.S. balanced out concerns over supply disruptions from Libya.
Brent crude futures rose 0.2% to $78.83 a barrel, having fallen more than 3% in the past two days, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 0.3% to $74.77.
