Market Roundup:
• US Jul Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
• US Jul Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 2.6%,2.7% forecast, 2.6% previous
• US Jul PCE Price Index (YoY) 2.5%,2.6% forecast, 2.5% previous
• US Jul PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
• US Jul Personal Income (MoM) 0.3%,0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
• US Jul Personal Spending (MoM) 0.5%,0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous
• US Jul Real Personal Consumption (MoM) 0.4%, 0.2% previous
• Canada GDP Implicit Price (QoQ) (Q2) 1.10%, -0.30% previous
• Canada Jun GDP (MoM) 0.0%, 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
• Canada GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.5%, 0.4% previous
• Canada GDP (YoY) (Q2) 0.91% ,0.53% previous
• Canada GDP Annualized (QoQ) (Q2) 2.1%,1.6% forecast, 1.7% previous
• US Chicago PMI (Aug) 46.1,45.0 forecast, 45.3 previous
• US Aug Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations 2.8% ,2.9% forecast, 2.9% previous
• US Aug Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 3.0% , 3.0% forecast, 3.0% previous
• US Aug Michigan Consumer Expectations 72.1 ,72.1 forecast, 68.8 previous
• US Aug Michigan Consumer Sentiment 67.9,67.8 forecast, 66.4 previous
• US Aug Michigan Current Conditions 61.3, 60.9 forecast, 62.7 previous
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) 2.5%,2.0% forecast, 2.0% previous
• Canada Jun Budget Balance (YoY) -2.88B, -3.89B previous
• Canada Jun udget Balance 0.94B,1.10B previous
• US U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 483 ,483 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro eased against the dollar on Friday after data showed Euro zone inflation slowed in August. Eurozone inflation fell to its lowest level in three years this month, bolstering the case for another European Central Bank rate cut in September. Inflation in the 20 euro-sharing countries slowed to 2.2% from 2.6%, matching forecasts, as lower energy prices moved it closer to the ECB's 2% target after three years of exceeding that level. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, also dipped to 2.8% from 2.9%, as weak imported goods prices countered an increase in services inflation, which rose to 4.2% from 4.0%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1106(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1186(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1048(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0984 (61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling declined on Friday as dollar rose after data showed a key inflation measure came in line with forecasts, while personal spending and income increased.Friday's data showed the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% last month, in line with expectations, after an unrevised 0.1% advance in June. In the 12 months through July, the PCE price index increased 2.5%, matching June's gain.U.S. rate futures on Friday implied a 31% chance of a 50 basis-point rate cut next month, down from Thursday's 35% probability, Consumer spending was also 0.5% higher last month after expanding 0.3% in June.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3173(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3267(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3095(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3017(61.8%fib).
USD/CAD :The Canadian dollar maintained most of its monthly gains against the U.S. dollar on Friday, as investors remained optimistic that the global economy would avoid a recession. Canadian GDP data showed the economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.1% in the second quarter, surpassing estimates of 1.6%. However, the growth, primarily driven by government spending, failed to impress some economists, with monthly data indicating a slowdown in June and likely in July as well.The Bank of Canada is expected to cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points for the third consecutive time on September 4, with further cuts anticipated in October and December. These faster-than-expected rate reductions reflect concerns about the broader economic outlook.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3506 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3552 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3454 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3422 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Friday after data supported the likelihood of smaller interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rose 0.2% in July, according to Commerce Department data released on Friday. Additionally, consumer spending, which makes up over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, increased by 0.5% last month. This data suggests the Fed may begin easing monetary policy as early as September.The dollar climbed 0.8% to 146.09 yen, marking its largest daily gain in two weeks. It also rose 1.2% for the week, positioning it for its biggest weekly increase since mid-June. Strong resistance can be seen at 147.29(38.2 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.97(23.6 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 142.57(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares reached an all-time high on Friday, closing out a turbulent month on a positive note as significant drop in Eurozone inflation bolstered market expectations for an interest rate cut in September, fueling the rally.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.04 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.03 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.13 percent.
Wall Street stocks advanced on Friday, with the Dow securing its second consecutive all-time closing high. Tesla and Amazon were among the top performers, as new U.S. economic data heightened expectations for a modest interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.55% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 1.01% percent, Nasdaq settled up by1.10% percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices declined on Friday as investors considered the potential increase in OPEC+ supply beginning in October, coupled with fading hopes for a significant U.S. interest rate cut next month after data indicated robust consumer spending.
Brent crude futures for October delivery , which expire on Friday, settled $1.14 lower, or 1.43%, at $78.80 a barrel, marking a decline of 0.3% for the week and 2.4% for the month.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled down $2.36, or 3.11%, to $73.55, a drop of 1.7% in the week and a 3.6% decline in August.
Gold dropped 1% on Friday as the dollar and Treasury yields strengthened following U.S. inflation data that aligned with expectations.
Spot gold fell 0.9% to $2,497.53 per ounce as of 1:42 p.m. ET (1742 GMT), while U.S. gold futures settled 1.3% lower at $2,527.60.
