Market Roundup
•US Building Permits 1.489M,1.470M forecast,1.493M previous
•US Building Permits (MoM) -0.3%,-1.5% forecast,1.8% previous
•Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) -0.6%,0.3% previous
•Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 0.4% ,-0.7% previous
•French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.471% ,3.477% previous
•French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.845%,3.838% previous
• French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.768% ,3.746% previous
• US Jan New Home Sales 661K, 680K forecast,664K previous
• US Jan New Home Sales (MoM) 1.5%, 8.0% previous
• US Feb Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index -11.3,-27.4 previous
• US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.130%, 5.100% previous
• US 2-Year Note Auction 4.691% ,4.365% previous
• US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.255%, 5.230% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Significant Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Monday as dollar weakened ahead of U.S. durable goods orders and an inflation reading this week that could provide more information on how soon the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates. U.S. durable goods data is due Tuesday, while January's U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index, which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, will be released Thursday. The market has recently reduced expectations for the size and how soon it expects the Fed to cut rates, as the U.S. economy remains strong.Markets have all but ruled out a cut at the Fed's March meeting and have recently pushed back expectations for a cut to June from May, CME's FedWatch Tool showed. The euro was last up 0.3% at $1.0852. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0869(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0906 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0808(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0742 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose against dollar on Monday as last week’s solid British economic data continued to support sterling. The pound secured its biggest one-week gain versus the dollar this year last week, boosted by upbeat business activity surveys The pound was set for a fifth daily rise against the dollar, its longest stretch of gains since the end of December. The futures market shows traders widely expect the Bank of England to cut rates in August, with a slim chance of a cut in June. Investors are banking on the BoE cutting rates by around 60 basis points to just below 4.60% by December, less than half of the 120 bps in cuts that were priced in at the start of this month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2703(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2729(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2668(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2638(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged lower against its U.S. counterpart on Monday as recent softer-than-expected domestic inflation data continued to weigh on the currency and despite higher oil prices. Data last Tuesday showed Canada's annual inflation rate slowing to 2.9% in January, bringing forward bets for an early interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada. Money markets see a 42% chance the central bank would ease as soon as April. The price of , a major Canadian export, was up 1.8% at $77.84 a barrel on expectations of tighter supply and the risk of disruptions to shipping. The loonie was 0.1% lower at 1.3518 to the U.S. dollar, after trading in a range of 1.3496 to 1.3528. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3535(23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3566 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3469(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3414 (50% fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar steadied against yen on Monday as investors anticipated a crucial inflation report which is likely to offer a fresh perspective on the timing of potential interest rate cut. The main event for investors this week will be Thursday's U.S. core PCE. Hotter readings of producer and consumer inflation have increased the likelihood that this measure might top expectations as well, which could further push back expectations for when the Fed might deliver its first cut. Japan's nationwide consumer prices are due on Tuesday and are forecast to show core inflation slowed to an annual rate of 1.8% in January, the lowest since March 2022.That would complicate the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) plans to end negative interest rates in coming months, keeping the yen under pressure in the near term. Strong resistance can be seen at 151.00(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.69(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.79(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 149.00(Psychological level )
Equities Recap
Europe's benchmark stock index dropped on Monday, led by miners, with investors bracing for crucial inflation reports throughout the week for further clues on the timing of interest rate cuts by major central banks, including the European Central Bank.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.29 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.01 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0. 46 percent.
U.S. stocks ended with modest losses on Monday, as the focus shifted after last week's AI-fueled rally to upcoming economic data that could affect the timing of the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cut.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.16percent, S&P 500 ended down by 0.38 percent, Nasdaq finished the day down by 0.13 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices gained on Monday as European diesel demand, constrained by Russian sanctions and shipping disruptions, pulled prices higher in a market jittery with U.S. refinery output limited by planned overhauls, analysts said.
Brent crude futures settled with a gain of 91 cents, or 1.11%, at $82.53 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) finished up $1.09, or 1.43%, at $77.58.
Gold inched lower on Monday as the market focus shifted to U.S. inflation data due this week which could influence the timeline of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
Spot gold edged 0.5% to $2,025.91 ounce at 10:20 a.m. ET (1520 GMT). U.S. gold futures dropped 0.6% to $2,036.60.
