Market Roundup
•U.S. retail sales fall more than expected
•U.S. jobless claims drop in latest week
•Empire State, Philly Fed indexes recover
•US Jan Retail Control (MoM) -0.4%,0.8% previous
•US Jan Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) -0.5%, 0.6% previous
•US Jan Export Price Index (MoM) 0.8%, -0.1% forecast,-0.9% previous
•US Jan Core Retail Sales (MoM) -0.6%,0.2% forecast,0.4% previous
•US Retail Sales (MoM) -0.8%,-0.2% forecast,0.6% previous
•US Jan Import Price Index (MoM) -0.8%,0.0% forecast, 0.0% previous
•US Feb Philly Fed Business Conditions -0.8%,-4.0 previous
•Canada Dec Manufacturing Sales (MoM) -0.7%,-0.6% forecast,1.2% previous
•US Feb NY Empire State Manufacturing Index -2.40,-13.70 forecast,-43.70 previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 212K, 219K forecast,218K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,895K,1,880K forecast,1,871K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 218.50K, 212.25K previous
•US Export Price Index (YoY) -2.4%,-3.2% previous
•US Import Price Index (YoY) -1.3%,-1.6% previous
•US Feb Philly Fed New Orders -5.2,-17.9 previous
•US Feb Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 5.2, -8.0 forecast,-10.6 previous
•US Jan Industrial Production (YoY) 0.03%, 0.98% previous
•US Manufacturing Production (MoM) -0.5%,.0% forecast,0.1% previous
•US Jan Capacity Utilization Rate 78.5%,78.8% forecast,78.6% previous
•US Jan Industrial Production (MoM) -0.1%,0.2% forecast,0.1% previous
•US Dec Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.6% forecast,-0.9% previous
•US Dec Business Inventories (MoM) 0.4%,0.4% forecast,-0.1% previous
•US Feb NAHB Housing Market Index 48, 46 forecast,44 previous
•US Natural Gas Storage -49B, -67B forecast,-75B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•02:00 China Feb Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI 70.38 previous
•02:00 Australia Feb Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (MoM) 50.16 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Thursday after a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. retail sales in January prompted a slight repositioning of expectations for interest rate cuts.The U.S. Commerce Department report showed retail sales dropped 0.8% last month, the biggest fall since February 2023. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales dipping 0.1%. A separate report showed initial jobless claims fell 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 212,000 for the week ended Feb. 10, slightly below the 220,000 estimate. Bets for an at least 25-basis-point rate cut in May edged up to 40.6%, while odds for June stood at 82%, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool .The euro up 0.4% at against the dollar at 1.0768. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0775(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0803 (Feb 12th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0697(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0669 (Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound declined on Thursday following the release of data indicating that the British economy slipped into a recession at the close of 2023 , prompted investors to heighten their expectations for rate cuts from the Bank of England this year. According to data from the Office for National Statistics, Britain's gross domestic product contracted by 0.3% in the three months leading up to December. This decline marked the country's entry into a recession during the second half of 2023, following a previous contraction of 0.1% between July and September. Sterling was last down 0.1% at $1.2558 from $1.2586. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2600(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2649 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2542(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2511(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as oil prices rose and weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales data encouraged profit-taking by investors that had made bullish bets on the greenback. It was the second straight day of gains for the currency. On Tuesday, it hit its weakest intraday level in two months at 1.3586 as investors reassessed prospects of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts over the coming months. Domestic data showed housing starts falling 10% in January from the previous month and factory sales down 0.7% in December. Still, much of the decline in factory sales was due to prices. Volumes fell much less, by 0.1%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3487 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3554(23.6% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3420(50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3380 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against Thursday as yen climbed despite the Japanese economy falling into a recession. Japan's economy unexpectedly contracted 0.4% on an annualised basis in October-December following the previous quarter's contraction, as consumption of clothing and eating out caused a decline in private consumption, Cabinet Office said on Thursday. The annualised GDP figure translated into a quarterly decrease of 0.1%, confounding the median economist forecast of a rise of 0.3%.Private consumption, which makes up more than half the economy, declined 0.2%, the Cabinet Office said, versus a 0.1% gain seen by economists. Strong resistance can be seen at 150.66 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.40(Nov 15th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen 150.00(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 149.81(38.2%fib )
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Thursday as upbeat corporate earnings pushed French and German stocks to a record high, while investors assessed comments by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on the disinflation process in the euro zone.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.38 percent, Germany's Dax closed up by 0.60 percent, France’s CAC closed up by 0.86 percent.
U.S. stocks closed higher on Thursday as retail sales data declined more than expected, feeding hopes the Federal Reserve will soon start cutting interest rates in coming months.
Dow Jones was closed up by 0.91 %percent, S&P 500 was closed up by 0.58 % percent, Nasdaq was closed up by 0.30% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices gained on Thursday after softer U.S. economic data pushed the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields lower, while market focus shifted to commentary from Federal Reserve officials for cues on the timeline for interest rate cut.
Spot gold was up 0.6% at $2,004.05 per ounce, as of 01:57 p.m. ET (1857 GMT).U.S. gold futures settled 0.5% higher to $2,014.9.
Oil prices rose over 1% on Thursday after U.S. retail data prompted a sell-off in the dollar, though investors eyed an International Energy Agency (IEA) report that flagged slowing demand growth this year.
Brent crude futures settled up $1.26, or 1.5%, at $82.86 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose $1.39, or 1.8%, to $78.03.
